C: Group risk management

i Overview

As a provider of financial services, including insurance, the Group’s business is the managed acceptance of risk. The control procedures and systems established within the Group are designed to manage, rather than eliminate, the risk of failure to meet business objectives. They can only provide reasonable and not absolute assurance against material misstatement or loss, and focus on aligning the levels of risk-taking with the achievement of business objectives.

The Group’s internal control processes are detailed in the Group Governance Manual. This is supported by the Group risk framework, which provides an overview of the Group-wide philosophy and approach to risk management. Where appropriate, more detailed policies and procedures have been developed at Group and/or business unit levels. These include Group-wide mandatory policies on certain operational rissks, including: health, safety, fraud, money laundering, bribery, business continuity, information security and operational security. Additional guidelines are provided for some aspects of actuarial and finance activity.

Prudential’s risk governance framework requires that all of the Group’s businesses and functions establish processes for identifying, evaluating and managing the key risks faced by the Group. The risk governance framework is based on the concept of ‘three lines of defence’: Risk management, risk oversight and independent assurance. Primary responsibility for strategy, performance management and risk control lies with the Board, the Group Chief Executive and the chief executives of each business unit. Risk oversight is provided by Group-level risk committees, Group Finance Director and the Group Risk function, working with counterparts in the business units in addition to other Group Head Office (GHO) oversight functions. Independent assurance on the Group’s and business unit internal control and risk management systems is provided by Group-wide Internal Audit reporting to the Group and business unit audit committees.

The Group’s risk reporting framework forms an important part of the Group’s business planning process. Business units carry out a review of risks as part of the annual preparation of their three-year business plan. This involves an assessment of the impact and likelihood of key risks and of the effectiveness of controls in place to manage them, and is reviewed regularly throughout the year. In addition, business unit dialogue meetings involving Group and business unit executive management are held regularly to review opportunities and risks to business objectives. Any mitigation strategies involving large transactions (e.g. a material derivative transaction) would be subject to scrutiny at Group level before implementation.

Additional information on the Group’s risk framework is included in the risk management section of the Group’s operating and financial review.

The management of the risk attached to the Group’s financial instruments and insurance liabilities, together with the inter-relationship with the management of capital may be summarised as follows:

a Group risk appetite

The Group risk appetite framework sets out the Group’s overall tolerance to risk exposures, approach to risk/return optimisation and management of risk. The Group risk appetite statements set out the Group’s risk tolerance, or risk appetite, to ‘shocks’ to the key financial risk exposures (market, credit and insurance risk). Aggregate risk limits are defined in terms of earnings volatility and capital requirements:

i Earnings volatility:

The objectives of the limits are to ensure that (a) the volatility of earnings is consistent with stakeholder expectations, (b) the Group has adequate earnings (and cash flows) to service debt and expected dividends and (c) that earnings (and cash flows) are managed properly across geographies and are consistent with the Group’s funding strategies. The two measures used currently are European Embedded Value (EEV) operating profit and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) operating profit.

ii Capital requirements:

The objectives of the limits are to ensure that (a) the Group is economically solvent, (b) the Group achieves its desired target rating to meet its business objectives, (c) supervisory intervention is avoided, (d) any potential capital strains are identified, and (e) accessible capital is available to meet business objectives. The two measures used are EU Insurance Groups Directive (IGD) capital requirements and economic capital requirements.

Business units must establish suitable market, credit, underwriting and liquidity limits that maintain financial risk exposures within the defined Group risk appetite.

b Group counterparty exposure limits

In addition to business unit operational limits on credit risk, counterparty risk limits are also set at the Group level. Limits on total Group-wide exposures to a single counterparty are specified for different credit rating ‘buckets’. Actual exposures are monitored against these limits on a quarterly basis.

c Risk mitigation

Prudential employs a range of risk mitigation strategies aimed at reducing the impact of a variety of risks. Key mitigation strategies include: adjustment of asset portfolios to reduce investment risks (such as duration mismatches or overweight counterparty exposures); use of derivatives to hedge market risks; reinsurance programmes to limit insurance risk; and corporate insurance programmes to limit impact of operational risks. Revisions to business plans (such as reassessment of bonus rates on participating business and scaling back of target new business volumes) may also be used as a mitigating strategy.

d Asset – liability management

The Group’s approach is explained in section (vi) below.

ii Major risks

The Group publishes separately within its Group Annual Report a section on key risk factors, which discusses inherent risks in the business and trading environment.

iii Market and financial risks

a Equity and interest rate risk

Market risk is the risk that fair value or future cash flows of a financial instrument or, in the case of liabilities of insurance contracts, their carrying value will fluctuate because of changes in market prices. Prudential faces equity risk and interest rate risk because most of its assets are investments that are either equity type investments and subject to equity price risk, or bonds, mortgages or cash deposits, the values of which are subject to interest rate risk. The amount of risk borne by Prudential’s shareholders depends on the extent to which its customers share the investment risk through the structure of Prudential’s products.

The split of Prudential’s investments between equity investments and interest-sensitive instruments depends principally on the type of liabilities supported by those investments and the amount of capital Prudential has available. The nature of some liabilities allows Prudential to invest a substantial portion of its investment funds in equity and property investments that Prudential believes produce greater returns over the long term. On the other hand Prudential has some liabilities that contain guaranteed returns and allow instant access (for example, interest-sensitive fixed annuities and immediate annuities), which generally will be supported by fixed income investments.

b Foreign exchange risk

Prudential faces foreign exchange risk, primarily because its presentation currency is pounds sterling, whereas approximately 54 per cent of Prudential’s operating profit from continuing operations based on longer-term investment returns, as described in note B1, for the year ended 31 December 2007, came from Prudential’s US and Asian operations. The exposure relating to the translation of reported earnings is not separately managed although its impact is reduced by interest payments on foreign currency borrowings and by the adoption of average exchange rates for the translation of foreign currency revenues.

Approximately 70 per cent of the Group’s IFRS basis shareholders’ equity at 31 December 2007 arose in Prudential’s US and Asian operations. To mitigate the exposure of the US component there are US$1.55 billion of borrowings held centrally. The Group has also entered into a US$2 billion net investment hedge (see note G3). Net of the currency position arising from these instruments some 40 per cent of the Group’s shareholders’ funds are represented by net assets in currencies other than sterling.

c Liquidity risk

Liquidity risk is the risk that Prudential may be unable to meet payment of obligations in a timely manner at a reasonable cost or the risk of unexpected increases in the cost of funding at appropriate maturities or rates. Liquidity management in each business seeks to ensure that, even under adverse conditions, Prudential has access to the funds necessary to cover surrenders, withdrawals and maturing liabilities.

In practice, most of Prudential’s invested assets are marketable securities. This, combined with the fact that a large proportion of the liabilities contain discretionary surrender values or surrender charges, reduces the liquidity risk. The Group maintains committed borrowing and securities lending facilities.

d Credit risk

Credit risk is the risk that a counterparty or an issuer of securities, which Prudential holds in its asset portfolio, defaults or another party fails to perform according to the terms of the contract. Some of Prudential’s businesses, in particular Jackson, the PAC with-profits fund, Prudential’s UK pension annuity business and, prior to the sale in the first half of 2007, Egg, held large amounts of interest-sensitive investments that contain credit risk on which a certain level of defaults is expected. These expected losses are considered when Prudential determines the crediting rates, deposit rates and premium rates for the products that will be supported by these assets. The key shareholder businesses exposed to credit risks are Jackson and, prior to disposal, Egg. Certain over-the-counter derivatives contain a credit risk element that is controlled through evaluation of collateral agreements and master netting agreements on interest rate and currency swaps. Prudential is also exposed to credit-related losses in the event of non-performance by counterparties.

Further analysis of the credit quality for Jackson is shown in note D3 and for discontinued Egg banking operations in note J7. Additional details on the credit quality of the debt security portfolios of UK and Asian insurance operations are shown in notes D2 and D4.

iv Use of derivatives

In the UK and Asia, Prudential uses derivatives to reduce equity and credit risk, interest rate and currency exposures, and to facilitate efficient investment management. In the US, Prudential uses derivatives to reduce interest rate risk, to facilitate efficient portfolio management and to match liabilities under annuity policies, and for certain equity-based product management activities.

Further details of the Group’s use of derivatives are explained in note G3.

It is Prudential’s policy that cash or corresponding assets cover amounts at risk through derivative transactions. Derivative financial instruments used to facilitate efficient portfolio management and for investment purposes are carried at fair value with changes in fair value included in long-term investment returns.

v Operational, compliance and fiscal risk

Operational risk is the risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes people or systems or from external events. Operational risk can result from a variety of factors, including failure to obtain proper internal authorisations or maintain internal controls, failure to document transactions properly, failure of operational and information security procedures or other procedural failures, computer system or software failures, other equipment failures, fraud, inadequate training or errors by employees. Compliance with internal rules and procedures designed to manage these risks is monitored by Prudential’s local management boards.

Internal compliance managers who report to the local management boards monitor adherence to local regulatory requirements. The head of Prudential’s Group Compliance function reports directly to the Group Chief Executive who submits regular reports to the Board of Directors.

Compliance risk includes the possibility that transactions may not be enforceable under applicable law or regulation as well as the cost of rectification and fines, and also the possibility that changes in law or regulation could adversely affect Prudential’s position. Prudential seeks to minimise compliance risk by seeking to ensure that transactions are properly authorised and by submitting new or unusual transactions to legal advisers for review.

Prudential is exposed to certain fiscal risks arising from changes in tax laws and enforcement policies and in reviews by taxation authorities of tax positions taken by Prudential in recent years. Prudential manages this risk and risks associated with changes in other legislation and regulation through ongoing review by relevant departments of proposed changes to legislation and by membership of relevant trade and professional committees involved in commenting on draft proposals in these areas.

vi Asset/liability management

Prudential manages its assets and liabilities locally, in accordance with local regulatory requirements and reflecting the differing types of liabilities of each business unit. Stochastic asset-liability modelling is carried out locally by business units to perform dynamic solvency testing and assess capital requirements. Reserve adequacy testing under a range of scenarios and dynamic solvency analysis is carried out, including under certain scenarios mandated by the US, the UK and Asian regulators.

A stochastic approach models the inter-relationship between asset and liability movements, taking into account asset correlation and policyholder behaviour, under a large number of possible scenarios. These scenarios are projected forward over a period of time, typically 25 years or longer, and the liabilities and solvency position of the fund are calculated in each scenario in each future year. This allows the identification of which extreme scenarios will have the most adverse effects and what the best estimate outcome may be. The fund’s policy on management actions, including bonus and investment policy, are then set in order that they are consistent with the available capital and the targeted risk of default. This differs from a deterministic model, which would only consider the results from one carefully selected scenario.

For businesses that are most sensitive to interest rate changes, such as immediate annuity business, Prudential uses cash flow analysis to create a portfolio of fixed income securities whose value changes in line with the value of liabilities when interest rates change. This type of analysis helps protect profits from changing interest rates. In the UK, the cash flow analysis is used in Prudential’s annuity business while, in the US, it is used for its interest-sensitive and fixed index annuities and stable value products such as Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GICs). Perfect matching is not possible for interest-sensitive and fixed index annuities because of the nature of the liabilities (which include guaranteed surrender values) and options for prepayment contained in the assets.

For businesses that are most sensitive to equity price changes, Prudential uses stochastic modelling and scenario testing to look at the expected future returns on its investments under different scenarios that best reflect the large diversity in returns that equities can produce. This allows Prudential to devise an investment and with-profits policyholder bonus strategy that, on the model assumptions, allows it to optimise returns to its policyholders and shareholders over time, while maintaining appropriate financial strength. Prudential uses this method extensively in connection with its UK with-profits business.

All of Prudential’s investments are held either for risk management or investment purposes. This is because almost all of the investments support policyholder or customer liabilities of one form or another. Any assets that Prudential holds centrally that are not supporting customer liabilities are predominantly invested in short-term fixed income and fixed maturity securities.

vii Regulatory capital requirements

Regulatory capital requirements apply at an individual company level for the Group life assurance and asset management business. These are described in sections D5 and E3 respectively. Capital requirements also applied for the Group’s discontinued banking operations, as described in note J8.

In addition, the Group as a whole is currently subject to the solvency requirements of the Insurance Groups Directive (IGD) as implemented by the FSA. Previously, whilst Prudential owned Egg, it was required to comply with the broadly equivalent requirements of the Financial Conglomerates Directive (FCD), as implemented by the FSA. Under both the IGD and FCD a continuous parent company solvency test is applied. Under this test the surplus capital held in each of the regulated subsidiaries is aggregated with the free assets of non-regulated subsidiaries. From this total Group borrowings are deducted, other than subordinated debt issues which qualify as capital. No credit for the benefit of diversification is allowed for under this approach. The test is passed when this aggregate number is positive, and a negative result at any point in time is a notifiable breach of UK regulatory requirements.

Due to the geographically diverse nature of Prudential’s operations, the application of these requirements to Prudential is complex. In particular, for many of the Group’s Asian operations the assets, liabilities and capital requirements have to be recalculated based on FSA regulations as if the companies were directly subject to FSA regulation.

The FSA has established a structure for determining how much hybrid debt can count as capital which is similar to that used for banks. It categorises capital as Tier 1 (equity and preference shares), Upper Tier 2 and Lower Tier 2. Up to 15 per cent of Tier 1 capital can be in the form of hybrid debt and is called ‘Innovative Tier 1’. At 31 December 2007 the Group held £763 million (31 December 2006: £763 million) of Innovative Tier 1 capital in the form of perpetual securities, £nil million (£250 million) of Upper Tier 2 and £932 million (£1,103 million) of Lower Tier 2 capital. Further details on these amounts and other Group borrowings are shown in note H13.

At 31 December 2006, Prudential met the requirements of the FCD. In addition, during 2007, Prudential met the ‘hard test’ of the FSA under both the FCD and IGD. The IGD position as at 31 December 2007 will be submitted to the FSA by 30 April 2008 and at the time of preparation of these financial statements the surplus capital under the test was estimated to be around £1.4 billion.

In addition to obligations under subsidiary and Group regulatory requirements, Prudential applies an economic framework to its management of capital.

Economic capital provides a realistic and consistent view of Prudential’s capital requirements, allowing for diversification benefits. Two types of ‘economic capital’ approaches are applied. These are:

— Group economic capital under which the capital requirement is determinable based on a multi-year projection thus taking into account the long-term nature of Prudential’s liabilities; and

— One-year Value at Risk Capital (1-yr VaR Capital). This capital is the amount required to withstand a maximum loss over a time period of one year consistent with a confidence level of 99.5 per cent. In additional to its risk management applications, the 1-yr VaR Capital framework is used for Individual Capital Assessments in the UK and anticipated to form the basis of Prudential’s capital modelling for future regulatory reporting developments, such as Solvency II.