Notes on the Group financial statements

Sections:   A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J
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D: Life assurance businesses

D1: Group overview

a Products and classification for IFRS reporting

The measurement basis of assets and liabilities of long-term business contracts is dependent upon the classification of the contracts under IFRS. Under IFRS 4, contracts are initially classified as being either ‘insurance’ contracts, if the level of insurance risk in the contracts is significant, or investment contracts, if the risk is insignificant.

Insurance contracts

Insurance contracts are permitted to be accounted for under previously applied GAAP. The Group has chosen to adopt this approach. However, as an improvement to accounting policy, permitted by IFRS 4, the Group has applied the measurement principles for with-profits contracts of UK regulated entities and disclosures of the UK Standard FRS 27 from 1 January 2005. An explanation of the provisions under FRS 27 is provided in note D2.

Under the previously applied GAAP, UK GAAP, the assets and liabilities of contracts are reported in accordance with the MSB of reporting as set out in the ABI SORP.

The insurance contracts of the Group’s shareholder-backed business fall broadly into the following categories:

— UK insurance operations

– bulk and individual annuity business, written primarily by Prudential Retirement Income Limited and other categories of non-participating UK business;

— Jackson

– fixed and variable annuity business and life insurance; and

— Prudential Corporation Asia

– non-participating term, whole life, and unit-linked policies, together with accident and health policies.

Investment contracts

Investment contracts are further delineated under IFRS 4 between those with and without discretionary participation features. For those contracts with discretionary participation features, IFRS 4 also permits the continued application of previously applied GAAP. The Group has adopted this approach, again subject to the FRS 27 improvement.

For investment contracts that do not contain discretionary participation features, IAS 39 and, where the contract includes an investment management element, IAS 18, apply measurement principles to assets and liabilities attaching to the contract that may diverge from those previously applied.

Contracts of the Group, which are classified as investment contracts that do not contain discretionary participation features, can be summarised as:

— UK

– certain unit-linked savings and similar contracts;

— Jackson

– GICs and funding agreements

– minor amounts of ‘annuity certain’ contracts; and

— Prudential Corporation Asia

– minor amounts for a number of small categories of business.

The accounting for the contracts of UK insurance operations and Jackson’s GICs and funding agreements are considered in turn below:

i Certain UK unit-linked savings and similar contracts

Deferred acquisition costs

Acquisition costs are deferred to the extent that it is appropriate to recognise an asset that represents the entity’s contractual right to benefit from providing investment management services and are amortised as the entity recognises the related revenue. IAS 18 further reduces the costs potentially capable of deferral to incremental costs only. Deferred acquisition costs are amortised to the income statement in line with service provision.

Deferred income reserves

These are required to be established under IAS 18 with amortisation over the expected life of the contract. The majority of the relevant UK contracts are single premium with the initial deferred income reflecting the ‘front-end load’ i.e. the difference between the premium paid and the amount credited to the unit fund. Deferred income is amortised to the income statement in line with service provision. The amortisation profile is either on a straight-line basis or, if more appropriate, a further deferral of income recognition is applied.

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Sterling reserves

Prudent provisions established for possible future expenses not covered by future margins at a policy level reflecting the regulatory approach in the UK are not permitted under IFRS 4.

ii Jackson – GICs and funding arrangements

Under a traditional GIC, the policyholder makes a lump sum deposit. The interest rate paid is fixed and established when the contract is issued. Funding agreements are of a similar nature but the interest rate may be floating, based on a rate linked to an external index. The US GAAP accounting requirements for such contracts are very similar to those under IFRS on the amortised cost model for liability measurement.

b Concentration of risk

i Business accepted

The Group has a broadly based exposure to life assurance risk. This is achieved through the geographical spread of the Group’s operations and, within those operations, through a broad mix of product types. In addition, looking beyond pure insurance risk, the Group considers itself well developed in its approach to assessment of diversification benefits through its economic capital framework that is used for internal business management. The economic capital methodology seeks to apply a single yardstick to assess and quantify all risks attaching to the Group’s insurance business and associated capital requirements.

Prudential’s internal Group economic capital requirement is defined as the minimum amount of capital that the Group needs to hold in order to remain economically solvent over a 25-year horizon, given a target probability of insolvency appropriate for AA-rated debt. The target confidence level is based on historic default rates for AA-rated debt, and varies over the time horizon of the projection. The economic capital requirement is calculated in respect of existing contractual and discretionary liabilities only, excluding the impact of future new business and dividend distribution.

For the purposes of calculating Group economic capital, Group economic solvency is defined as the position where both: (a) the capital balance of the parent company is positive, and (b) all business units are solvent on the applicable local regulatory basis. This definition of solvency allows the Group’s capital position to be assessed on an economic basis while taking into account the actual regulatory constraints at the business unit level.

The Group economic capital position is calculated using the Group Solvency Model (GSM) – an integrated stochastic asset/liability model of the Group economic solvency position. Projected economic scenarios in the GSM are generated using a stochastic economic scenario generator that captures the correlations between different asset classes and geographies.

The Group regularly determines the level of capital required to cover the risks to its existing contractual and discretionary insurance liabilities on an economic basis and its internal target solvency level. This level of required capital is determined after allowance for diversification across risk and geographies and the capturing of future shareholders’ transfers from the business units. This level is then compared with available capital on an equivalent basis (i.e. IFRS shareholders’ equity after eliminating goodwill and including subordinated debt capital and valuation differences). The required capital is then analysed into its contributing parts by risk type namely market risk (including interest and equity risk), credit risk, underwriting, persistency and operational risk.

The largest risk exposure continues to be credit risks which reflect the relative size of exposure in Jackson and the UK shareholder annuities business. However, credit risk has reduced due to the sale of Egg and Jackson’s maturing fixed annuity business.

An example of the diversification benefits for Prudential is that adverse scenarios do not affect all business units in the same way, providing natural hedges within the Group. For example, the Group’s US business is sensitive to increasing interest rates, whereas, in contrast, several business units in Asia benefit from increasing rates. Conversely, these Asian business units are sensitive towards low interest rates, whereas the US benefits from falling interest rates. The economic capital framework also takes into account situations where factors are correlated, for example the extent of correlation between Asian and US economies.

ii Ceded business

The Group cedes certain business to other insurance companies. Although the ceding of insurance does not relieve the Group of liability to its policyholders, the Group participates in such agreements for the purpose of managing its loss exposure. The Group evaluates the financial condition of its reinsurers and monitors concentration of credit risk from similar geographic regions, activities or economic characteristics of the reinsurers to minimise its exposure from reinsurer insolvencies. There are no significant concentrations of reinsurance risk. At 31 December 2007, 98 per cent of the reinsurance recoverable insurance assets were ceded by the Group’s UK and US operations, of which 88 per cent of the balance were from reinsurers with Standard & Poor’s rating AA- and above. A similar position was held at 31 December 2006.

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c Guarantees

Notes D2(c), D3(c), D4(b) and D4(h) provide details of guarantee features of the Group’s life assurance products. In the UK, guarantees of the with-profits products are valued for accounting purposes on a market consistent basis for 2007 as described in section D2(e)(ii). The UK business also has products with guaranteed annuity option features, mostly within SAIF, as described in section D2(c). There is little exposure to financial options and guarantees in the shareholder-backed business of the UK operations. The US business annuity products have a variety of option and guarantee features as described in section D3(c). Jackson’s derivative programme seeks to manage the exposures as described in section D3(d). The most significant exposure for the Group arises on Taiwan whole of life policies as described in section D4(h)(iii).

d Amount, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows from insurance contracts

The factors that affect the amount, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows from insurance contracts depend upon the businesses concerned as described in subsequent sections. In general terms, the Group is managed by reference to a combination of measures. These measures include IFRS basis earnings, net shareholder cash flow to or from business units from or to central funds, and movements in the present value of future expected distributable earnings of in-force long-term insurance business. The latter item when added to the net assets is commonly referred to as Embedded Value.

The Group prepares and publishes supplementary information in accordance with the European Embedded Value (EEV) principles issued by the CFO Forum of European Insurance Companies in May 2004 and expanded by the addition of Additional Guidance on EEV Disclosures published in October 2005. Key elements of the EEV principles are the approach applied to allowing for risk and the use of best estimate assumptions to project future cash flows arising from the contracts.

The business covered by the EEV basis results includes both investment contracts as well as insurance contracts (as defined under IFRS 4). Investment contracts form a relatively small part of the Group’s long-term business as demonstrated by the carrying value of policyholder liabilities shown in the Group balance sheet.

The projected cash flows are those expected to arise under the contracts such as those arising from premiums, claims and expenses after appropriate allowance for future lapse behaviour and mortality and morbidity experience. The cash flows also include the expected future cash flows on assets covering liabilities and encumbered capital.

Encumbered capital is based on the Group’s internal target for economic capital subject to it meeting at least the local statutory minimum requirements. Economic capital is assessed using internal models but does not take credit for the significant diversification benefits that exist within the Group.

The valuation of the future cash flows also takes account of the ‘time value’ of option and guarantee features of the Group’s long-term business contracts. The time value reflects the variability of economic outcomes in the future. Where appropriate, a full stochastic valuation is undertaken to determine the value of the in-force business. Common principles are adopted across the Group for the stochastic asset model classes, for example, separate modelling of individual asset classes but with allowance for correlation between the various asset classes. In deriving the time value of financial options and guarantees, management actions in response to emerging investment and fund solvency conditions are modelled. In all instances, the modelled actions are in accordance with approved local practice and therefore reflect the options actually available to management. For the PAC with-profits sub-fund, the actions are consistent with those set out in the Principles and Practices of Financial Management.

The present value of the future distributable earnings is calculated using a risk discount rate which reflects both the time value of money and the risks associated with the cash flows that are not otherwise allowed for. The risk allowance covers market and non-market risks.

Under Capital Asset Pricing Methodology (CAPM), the discount rate is determined as the aggregate of the risk-free rate and the risk margin for market risk. The latter is calculated as the ‘beta’ multiplied by the equity risk premium. Under CAPM, the beta of a portfolio or product measures its relative market risk. The risk discount rates reflect the market risk inherent in each product group and hence the volatility of product cash flows. They are determined by considering how the profits from each product are impacted by changes in expected returns on various asset classes, and by converting this into a relative rate of return, it is possible to derive a product specific beta.

Product specific discount rates are used in order to reflect the risk profile of each major territory and product group. No allowance is required for non-market risks where these are assumed to be fully diversifiable. The majority of non-market risks are considered to be diversifiable. Finance theory cannot be used to determine the appropriate component of beta for non-diversifiable non-market risks since there is no observable risk premium associated with it that is akin to the equity risk premium. Recognising this, a pragmatic approach has been used. A constant margin of 50 basis points (2006: 50 basis points) has been added to the risk margin derived for market risk to cover the non-diversifiable non-market risks associated with the business. For the UK shareholder-backed annuity business an additional margin of 100 basis points was used (2006: 100 basis points).

Product level betas are calculated each year. They are combined with the most recent product mix to produce appropriate betas and risk discount rates for each major product grouping.

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Details of the key assumptions and sensitivity of the EEV value of in-force business are shown in the sections for each geographic segment that follow in this note. The sensitivity of the present value of the discounted future cash flows under the EEV methodology is of particular interest. The sensitivity provides an indication of the movement in the net value ascribable to potential variations in the amounts and timing of future cash flows to shareholders and the uncertainty attached to those cash flows.

e Sensitivity of IFRS basis profit or loss and equity to market and other risks

i Overview of risks by business unit

The financial assets and liabilities attaching to the Group’s life assurance business are, to varying degrees, subject to market and insurance risk and other changes of experience assumptions that may have a material effect on IFRS basis profit or loss and equity.

Market risk is the risk that the fair value or future cash flows of a financial instrument or, in the case of liabilities of insurance contracts, their carrying value will fluctuate because of changes in market prices. Market risk comprises three types of risk, namely:

— Currency risk: due to changes in foreign exchange rates,

— interest rate risk: due to changes in market interest rates, and

— other price risk: due to fluctuations in market prices (other than those arising from interest rate risk or currency risk).

Policyholder liabilities relating to the Group’s life assurance businesses are also sensitive to the effects of other changes in experience, or expected future experience, such as for mortality, other insurance risk and lapse risk.

In addition, the profitability of the Group’s life assurance businesses and, as described in Section E, Asset management business, is indirectly affected by the performance of the assets covering policyholder liabilities and related capital.

Three key points are to be noted, namely:

— The Group’s with-profit and unit-linked funds absorb most market risk attaching to the fund’s investments. Except for second order effects, for example on asset management fees and shareholders’ share of cost of bonuses for with-profits business, shareholder results are not directly affected by market value movements on the assets of these funds.

— The Group’s shareholder results are most sensitive to market risks for assets of shareholder-backed business.

— The main exposures of the Group’s IFRS basis results to market risk for life assurance operations on investments of shareholder-backed business are for debt securities.

The most significant items for which the IFRS basis profit or loss and equity for the Group’s life assurance business is sensitive to these variables are shown in the following tables. The distinction between direct and indirect exposure is not intended to indicate the relative size of the sensitivity.

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  Market and credit risk
Type of business   Investments/derivatives   Liabilities/unallocated surplus   Indirect exposure   Insurance and lapse risk
UK insurance operations (see also section D2(i))
With-profits business
(including Prudential
Annuities Limited)
Net neutral direct exposure (Indirect exposure only)   Investment performance subject to smoothing through declared bonuses   Persistency risk to future shareholder transfers
SAIF sub-fund Net neutral direct exposure (Indirect exposure only)   Asset management fees earned by M&G    
Unit-linked business Net neutral direct exposure (Indirect exposure only)   Investment performance through asset management fees   Persistency risk
  Asset/liability mismatch risk        
Shareholder-backed
annuity business
Credit risk

Interest rate risk for assets
in excess of liabilities
i.e. representing
shareholder capital
      Mortality experience and assumptions for longevity
US insurance operations (see also section D3(i))
All business Currency risk       Persistency risk
Variable annuity
business
Net effect of market risk arising from incidence of guarantee features and variability of asset management fees offset by derivative hedging programme   Investment performance through asset management fees    
Fixed indexed
annuity business
Derivative hedge programme to the extent not fully hedged against liability and fund performance   Incidence of equity participation features   Spread difference between earned rate and rate credited to policyholders   Lapse risk but the effects of extreme events are mitigated by the use of swaption contracts
Fixed annuity business/
GIC business
Credit risk
Interest rate risk
These risks are reflected in volatile profit or loss and shareholders’ equity for derivative value movements and impairment losses, and, in addition, for shareholders’ equity for value movements on fixed income securities classified as ‘available for sale’ under IAS 39
       
Asian insurance operations (see also section D4(h))
All business Currency risk       Persistency risk
With-profits business Net neutral direct exposure (Indirect exposure only)   Investment performance
subject to smoothing
through declared bonuses
   
Unit-linked business Net neutral direct exposure (Indirect exposure only)   Investment performance
through asset
management fees
   
Non-participating business          
Taiwan Interest rate and price risk   Long-term interest rates      
Other non-participating          
business Interest rate and price risk   Long-term interest rates      
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ii IFRS shareholder results – Exposures for market and other risk

Key Group exposures

The IFRS operating profit based on longer-term investment returns for UK insurance operations has high potential sensitivity for changes to longevity assumptions affecting the carrying value of liabilities to policyholders for shareholder-backed annuity business. In addition, at the total IFRS profit level the result is sensitive to temporary value movements on assets backing IFRS equity.

For Jackson at the level of operating profit based on longer-term investment returns, the results are sensitive to market conditions to the extent of income earned on spread-based products and equity-based exposure not covered by the equity derivative programmes. However, the main effect is on Jackson IFRS total profit and equity. IFRS profit or loss and equity arise from the accounting rather than economic effect of market value movements on assets and derivatives attaching to fixed annuity, term and institutional business.

Jackson’s derivative programme is used to substantially mitigate equity market risk attaching to its equity-based products and interest rate risk associated with its spread-based products. Combined with the spread based nature of Jackson’s other products and the US GAAP basis of measuring liabilities to policyholders, Jackson’s risk exposure at the operating profit level based on longer-term investment returns is relatively less significant than for other parts of the Group. However, movements in interest rates and credit spreads materially affect the carrying value of derivatives which are used to manage the liabilities to policyholders and backing investment assets of fixed annuity and other general account business. Combined with the use of US GAAP measurement for the asset and liabilities for the insurance contracts, which is largely insensitive to current period market movements, the Jackson total profit (i.e. including short-term fluctuations in investment returns) is very sensitive to market movements. In addition to these effects the Jackson IFRS equity is sensitive to the impact of interest rate and credit spread movements on the value of fixed income securities. Movements in unrealised appreciation on these securities are included as movement in equity (i.e. outside the income statement).

For Asian operations, other than possibly for the impact of any alteration to assumed long-term interest rates in Taiwan, the operating profit based on longer-term investment returns is mainly affected by the impact of market levels on unit-linked business persistency, and other insurance risk.

At the total IFRS profit level the Asian result is affected by short-term value movements on the asset portfolio for non-linked shareholder-backed business.

M&G profits are affected primarily by movements in the growth in funds under management and of the effect of any impairment on the loan book of Prudential Capital.

Market and credit risk

UK insurance operations

With-profits business

— With-profits business

Shareholder results of UK with-profits business are sensitive to market risk only through the indirect effect of investment performance on declared policyholder bonuses.

The investment assets of the PAC with-profits fund are subject to market risk. However, changes in their carrying value, net of related changes to asset-share liabilities of with-profit contracts, affect the level of unallocated surplus of the fund. As unallocated surplus is accounted for as a liability under IFRS, movements in its value do not affect shareholders’ profit or equity.

The shareholder results of the UK with-profits fund correspond to the shareholders’ share of the cost of bonuses declared on the with-profits business. This currently corresponds to one-ninth of the cost of bonuses declared.

Investment performance is a key driver of bonuses, and hence the shareholders’ share of cost of bonuses. Due to the ‘smoothed’ basis of bonus declaration the sensitivity to investment performance in a single year is low. However, over multiple periods it is important.

— Prudential Annuities Limited (PAL)

PAL’s business is not with-profit; it writes annuity business. However, as PAL is owned by the PAC with-profits sub-fund, changes in the carrying value of PAL’s assets and liabilities are reflected in the liability for unallocated surplus which as described above, changes to which do not affect shareholder results.

— Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund (SAIF)

SAIF is a ring-fenced fund in which, apart from asset management fees, shareholders have no interest. Accordingly, the Group’s IFRS profit and equity are insensitive to the direct effects of market risk attaching to SAIF’s assets and liabilities.

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Shareholder-backed business

The factors that may significantly affect the IFRS results of UK shareholder-backed business are the mortality experience and assumptions and credit risk attaching to the annuity business of Prudential Retirement Income Limited and the PAC non-profit sub-fund.

— Prudential Retirement Income Limited (PRIL)

The assets covering PRIL’s liabilities are principally debt securities and other investments that are held to match the expected duration and payment characteristics of the policyholder liabilities. These liabilities are valued for IFRS reporting purposes by applying discount rates that reflect the market rates of return attaching to the covering assets.

Except mainly to the extent of any minor asset/liability duration mismatch and exposure to credit risk, the sensitivity of the Group’s results to market risk for movements in the carrying value of PRIL’s liabilities and covering assets is broadly neutral on a net basis.

The main market risk sensitivity for PRIL arises from interest rate risk on the debt securities which substantially represent IFRS equity. This equity comprises the net assets held within the long-term fund of the company that cover regulatory basis liabilities that are not recognised for IFRS reporting purposes, for example contingency reserves, and shareholder capital held outside the long-term fund.

The principal items affecting the IFRS results for PRIL are mortality experience and assumptions and credit risk.

— PAC non-profit sub-fund

The PAC non-profit sub-fund principally comprises annuity business previously written by Scottish Amicable Life, credit life, unit-linked and other non-participating business.

The financial assets covering the liabilities for those types of business are subject to market risk. However, for the annuity business the same considerations as described above for PRIL apply, whilst the liabilities of the unit-linked business change in line with the matching linked assets. Other liabilities of the PAC non-profit sub-fund are broadly insensitive to market risk.

— Other shareholder backed unit-linked business

Due to the matching of policyholder liabilities to attaching asset value movements the UK unit-linked business is not directly affected by market or credit risk. The principal factor affecting the IFRS results is investment performance through asset management fees.

Jackson

The IFRS basis results of Jackson are highly sensitive to market risk on the assets covering liabilities for fixed annuity, term, institutional and other variable annuity business not segregated in the separate accounts.

Invested assets covering liabilities for these types of business and related capital comprise principally debt securities classified as available-for-sale. Value movements for these securities are reflected as movements in shareholders’ equity. Other invested assets and derivatives are carried at fair value with the value movements reflected in the income statement.

By contrast, the IFRS insurance liabilities for these types of business of Jackson, by the application of grandfathers GAAP under IFRS 4, are measured on US GAAP bases which with the exception of certain items covered by the equity hedging programme, are generally insensitive to temporary changes in market conditions or the short-term returns on the attaching asset portfolios.

These differences in carrying value give rise to potentially significant volatility in the IFRS income statement and shareholders’ equity. As for other shareholder-backed business the profit or loss for Jackson is presented in the Group’s supplementary basis of reporting as described in note B1, by distinguishing the result for the year between an operating result based on longer-term investment returns and short-term fluctuations in investment returns. In this way the most significant direct effect of market changes that have taken place to the Jackson result are separately identified.

Excluding these short-term effects, the factors that most significantly affect the Jackson IFRS operating result based on long-term investment returns are:

Variable annuity business – net effect of market risk arising from incidence of guarantee features and variability of asset management fees offset by derivative hedging performance.

Fixed annuity business – the spread differential between the earned rate and the rate credited to policyholders; and

Fixed index annuity business – the spread differential between the earned rate and the rate credited to policyholders and incidence of equity index participation features.

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Asian operations

For Asian with-profits business the same features apply as described above for UK with-profits business. Similarly, as for other parts of the Group, for unit-linked business the main factor affecting IFRS basis results is investment performance through asset management fees.

The sensitivity of the IFRS basis results of the Group’s Asian operations to market risk is primarily restricted to the non-participating business.

This sensitivity is primarily reflected through the volatility of asset returns coupled with the fact that the accounting carrying value of liabilities to policyholders are only partially sensitive to changed market conditions. As for UK shareholder-backed operations and Jackson, the IFRS profit is distinguished in the Group’s supplementary analysis so as to distinguish operating profits based on longer-term investment return and short-term fluctuations in investment returns.

In addition to these features the overriding factor that affects IFRS basis results for Asian non-participating business is the return on the assets covering the Taiwan whole of life policies. This factor directly affects the actual return in any given reporting period. In addition though, the measurement of the liabilities to policyholders and the carrying value of deferred acquisition costs for this business is dependant upon an assessment of longer-term interest rates. This key feature is described in more detail in notes D4(d) and (h)(iii).

Insurance and lapse risk

The features described above cover the main sensitivities of IFRS profit and loss and equity for market, insurance and credit risk. Lapse and longevity risk may also be a key determination of IFRS basis results with variable impacts.

In the UK, adverse persistency experience can effect the level of profitability from with-profits and unit-linked business. For with-profits business in any given year, the amount represented by the shareholders’ share of cost of bonus may be only marginally affected. However, altered persistency trends may affect the embedded value of the business in force reflecting an altered value of future expected shareholder transfers.

By contrast, Group IFRS operating profit is particularly sensitive to longevity shocks that result in changes of assumption for the UK shareholder-backed annuity business.

Jackson is sensitive to lapse risk. However, Jackson has swaption derivatives in place to ameliorate the effect of a sharp rise in interest rates, which would be the most likely cause of a sudden change in policyholder behaviour.

iii Impact of diversification on risk exposure

The Group enjoys significant diversification benefits. This arises because not all risk scenarios will happen at the same time and across all geographic regions. The Group tests the sensitivities of results to different correlation factors such as:

Correlation across geographic regions

— Financial risk factors

— Non-financial risk factors.

Correlation across risk factors

— Longevity risk

— Expenses

— Persistency

— Other risks.

The effect of Group diversification is to significantly reduce the aggregate standalone volatility risk to IFRS operating profit based on longer-term investment returns. The effect is almost wholly explained by the correlations across risk types, in particular longevity risk.

f Duration of liabilities

Under the terms of the Group’s contracts, as for life assurance contracts generally, the contractual maturity date is the earlier of the end of the contract term, death, other insurable events or surrender. The Group has therefore chosen to provide details of liability duration that reflect the actuarially determined best estimate of the likely incidence of these factors on contract duration. Details are shown in sections D2(j), D3(j) and D4(i).

In the years 2003 to 2007, claims paid on the Group’s life assurance contracts including those classified as investment contracts under IFRS 4 ranged from £11.8 billion to £17.1 billion. Indicatively it is to be expected that of the Group’s policyholder liabilities (excluding unallocated surplus) at 31 December 2007 of £176 billion, the amounts likely to be paid in 2008 will be of a similar magnitude.

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D2: UK insurance operations

a Summary balance sheet

In order to explain the different types of UK business and fund structure, the balance sheet of the UK insurance operations may be analysed by the assets and liabilities of the Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund (SAIF), the PAC with-profits sub-fund, PRIL, unit-linked and other business. The assets and liabilities of these funds and subsidiaries are shown in the table below.

PAC with-profits sub-fund note i   Other funds and subsidiaries
Scottish
Amicable
Insurance
Fund note ii
£m
Excluding
Prudential
Annuities  Limited
£m
Prudential Annuities Limited
note iii
£m
Total
note iv
£m
Prudential
Retirement
Income Limited
£m
Unit-linked business
£m
Other business
£m
Total
£m
UK insurance
operations
    2007 2006
  Total
£m
Total
£m
Assets
Intangible assets attributable
to shareholders:
Deferred acquisition costs
and other intangible assets   55 102 157 157 167
  55 102 157 157 167
Intangible assets attributable
to PAC with-profits fund:
In respect of acquired
subsidiaries for venture
fund and other
investment purposes 192 192   192 830
Deferred acquisition costs 4 15 15   19 31
4 207 207   211 861
Total 4 207 207   55 102 157 368 1,028
Other non-investment and
non-cash assets 161 2,086 289 2,375   512 660 725 1,897 4,433 4,733
Investments of long-term business
and other operations:
Investment properties 1,230 10,197 485 10,682   724 1,030 1,754 13,666 14,429
Financial investments:
Loansnote v 184 599 163 762   43 256 299 1,245 1,128
Equity securities and
portfolio holdings
in unit trusts 6,946 40,756 352 41,108   107 12,659 9 12,775 60,829 60,246
Debt securitiesnote vi 4,595 20,383 13,075 33,458   13,173 5,751 203 19,127 57,180 53,461
Other investmentsnote vii 244 2,531 127 2,658   90 115 284 489 3,391 2,461
Deposits 466 4,021 313 4,334   828 1,418 182 2,428 7,228 6,812
Total investments 13,665 78,487 14,515 93,002   14,965 20,973 934 36,872 143,539 138,537
Held for sale assets 30   30 463
Cash and cash equivalents 127 642 56 698   49 836 159 1,044 1,869 1,979
Total assets 13,987 81,422 14,860 96,282   15,526 22,524 1,920 39,970 150,239 146,740
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PAC with-profits sub-fund note i Other funds and subsidiaries
Scottish UK insurance operations
Amicable Excluding Prudential Prudential
Insurance Prudential Annuities Retirement
Fund Annuities Limited Total Income Unit-linked Other   2007 2006
note ii Limited note iii note iv Limited business business Total Total Total
£m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m
Equity and liabilities
Equity
Shareholders’ equity   1,125 194 45 1,364 1,364 1,263
Minority interests 22 20 20   42 79
Total equity 22 20 20   1,125 194 45 1,364 1,406 1,342
Liabilities
Policyholder liabilities and
unallocated surplus of with-profits funds: Insurance contract liabilities 12,927 34,988 12,564 47,552 13,402 8,766 151 22,319 82,798 80,323
Investment contract liabilities
with discretionary participation features 693 28,773 28,773 29,466 28,665
Investment contract liabilities
without discretionary participation features 14 14 12,059 12,059 12,073 11,453
Unallocated surplus of
with-profits funds (reflecting application of ‘realistic’ provisionsfor UK regulated with-profits funds) 12,486 1,719 14,205 14,205 13,511
Total 13,620 76,261 14,283 90,544 13,402 20,825 151 34,378 138,542 133,952
Operational borrowings
attributable to shareholder-financed operations 12 12 12 11
Borrowings attributable to
with-profits funds 112 875 875 987 1,776
Other non-insurance liabilities 233 4,266 577 4,843 999 1,493 1,724 4,216 9,292 9,659
Total liabilities 13,965 81,402 14,860 96,262 14,401 22,330 1,875 38,606 148,833 145,398
Total equity and liabilities 13,987 81,422 14,860 96,282 15,526 22,524 1,920 39,970 150,239 146,740

Notes

i For the purposes of this table and subsequent explanation, references to the WPSF also include, for convenience, the amounts attaching to the Defined Charges Participating Sub-fund.

ii SAIF is a separate sub-fund within the PAC long-term business fund.

iii Wholly-owned subsidiary of the PAC WPSF that writes annuity business.

iv Excluding policyholder liabilities of the Hong Kong branch of PAC.

v The loans of the Group’s UK insurance operations of £1,245 million comprise mortgage loans of £449 million, policy loans of £35 million and other loans of £761 million. The mortgage loans are collateralised by properties. Other loans are all commercial loans and comprise mainly syndicated loans held by the PAC with-profits fund.

vi Included in debt securities above are £3,511 million (2006: £3,341 million) of securities which are not quoted on active markets and are valued using valuation techniques of which £3,002 million (2006: £2,945 million) related to assets held by with-profits operations and £509 million (2006: £396 million) related to assets held by shareholder-backed operations.

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vii Other investments comprise:

2007
£m
Derivative assets (note G3) 571
Partnerships in investment pools and other 2,820
3,391

Partnerships in investment pools and other comprise mainly investments held by the PAC with-profits fund. These investments are primarily venture fund investments and investment in property funds and limited partnerships.

b Information on credit risk of debt securities

The following table summarises by rating the securities held by UK insurance operations as at 31 December 2007 and 2006:

Download as excel file
PAC with-profits sub-fund   Other funds and subsidiaries
Scottish
Amicable
Excluding
Prudential
Prudential   Prudential
Retirement
UK insurance
operations
Insurance Annuities Annuities Income Unit-linked Other 2007 2006
Fund Limited Limited Total   Limited business business Total Total
£m £m £m £m   £m £m £m £m £m
S&P – AAA 1,453 6,434 4,356 10,790   5,658 3,534 121 21,556 18,794
S&P – AA+ to AA- 436 1,978 1,518 3,496   1,541 680 20 6,173 4,859
S&P – A+ to A- 1,030 4,356 2,693 7,049   3,354 1,093 31 12,557 12,270
S&P – BBB+ to BBB- 652 2,780 920 3,700   781 267 9 5,409 5,792
S&P – Other 167 757 11 768   1 6 942 880
3,738 16,305 9,498 25,803   11,335 5,580 181 46,637 42,595
Moody’s – Aaa 138 550 177 727   125 22 9 1,021 1,073
Moody’s – Aa1 to Aa3 23 198 273 471   82 9 2 587 479
Moody’s – A1 to A3 74 321 284 605   243 19 3 944 1,030
Moody’s – Baa1 to Baa3 41 180 150 330   103 14 2 490 627
Moody’s – Other 10 400 400   410 127
286 1,649 884 2,533   553 64 16 3,452 3,336
Fitch 43 196 265 461   160 17 1 682 1,243
Other 528 2,233 2,428 4,661   1,125 90 5 6,409 6,287
Total debt securities 4,595 20,383 13,075 33,458   13,173 5,751 203 57,180 53,461

In the table above S&P ratings have been used where available. For securities where S&P ratings are not available those produced by Moody’s and then Fitch have been used as an alternative.

Where no external ratings are available internal ratings produced by the Group’s asset management operations, which are prepared on the Company’s assessment of a comparable basis to external ratings, are used where possible. Of the total debt securities held at 31 December 2007 which are not externally rated, £2,972 million were internally rated AAA to A-, £2,844 million were internally rated BBB+ to B- and £593 million were unrated. The majority of unrated debt security investments were held in SAIF and the PAC with-profits fund and relate to convertible debt and other investments which are not covered by ratings analysts nor have an internal rating attributed to them.

As detailed in note D2(i) below the primary sensitivity of IFRS basis profit or loss and shareholders’ equity relates to non-linked shareholder-backed business which covers other funds and subsidiaries in the table above.

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c Products and guarantees

Prudential’s long-term products in the UK consist of life insurance, pension products and pension annuities.

These products are written primarily in:

— One of three separate sub-funds of the PAC long-term fund, namely the with-profits sub-fund, the SAIF, and the non-profit sub-fund;

— Prudential Annuities Limited, which is owned by the PAC with-profits sub-fund;

— Prudential Retirement Income Limited, a shareholder-owned subsidiary; or

— Other shareholder-backed subsidiaries writing mainly non-profit unit-linked business.

i With-profits products and PAC with-profits sub-fund

Within the balance sheet of UK insurance operations at 31 December 2007, there are policyholder liabilities of £76.3 billion (2006: £74.1 billion) and unallocated surplus of £14.2 billion (2006: £13.5 billion) that relate to the WPSF. The WPSF mainly contains with-profits business but it also contains some non-profit business (unit-linked, term assurances and annuities). The WPSF’s profits are apportioned 90 per cent to its policyholders and 10 per cent to shareholders as surplus for distribution is determined via the annual actuarial valuation.

With-profits products provide returns to policyholders through bonuses that are ‘smoothed’. There are two types of bonuses: ‘annual’ and ‘final’. Annual bonuses are declared once a year, and once credited, are guaranteed in accordance with the terms of the particular product. Unlike annual bonuses, final bonuses are guaranteed only until the next bonus declaration.

When determining policy payouts, including final bonuses, Prudential considers policyholders’ reasonable expectations, the need to smooth claim values and payments from year to year and competitive considerations, together with ‘asset shares’ for specimen policies. Asset shares broadly reflect the value of premiums paid plus the investment return on the assets notionally attributed to the policy, less the other items to be charged such as expenses and the cost of the life insurance cover.

For many years, UK with-profits product providers, such as Prudential, have been required by law and regulation to consider the reasonable expectations of policyholders in setting bonus levels. This concept is established by statute but is not defined. However, it is defined within the regulatory framework, which also more recently contains an explicit requirement to treat customers fairly.

The WPSF held a provision of £45 million at 31 December 2007 (2006: £47 million) to honour guarantees on a small amount of guaranteed annuity products. SAIF’s exposure to guaranteed annuities is described below.

Beyond the generic guarantees described above, there are very few explicit options or guarantees such as minimum investment returns, surrender values or annuities at retirement and any granted have generally been at very low levels.

ii Annuity business

Prudential’s conventional annuities include level, fixed increase and retail price index (RPI) annuities. They are mainly written within the subsidiaries PAL, PRIL, Prudential Pensions Limited and the PAC with-profits sub-fund, but there are some annuity liabilities in the non-profit sub-fund and SAIF.

Prudential’s fixed-increase annuities incorporate automatic increases in annuity payments by fixed amounts over the policyholder’s life. The RPI annuities that Prudential offers provide for a regular annuity payment to which an additional amount is added periodically based on the increase in the UK RPI.

Prudential’s with-profits annuities, which are written in the WPSF, combine the income features of annuity products with the investment smoothing features of with-profits products and enable policyholders to obtain exposure to investment return on the WPSF’s equity shares, property and other investment categories over time. Policyholders select an ‘anticipated bonus’ from the specific range Prudential offers for the particular product. The amount of the annuity payment each year depends upon the relationship between the anticipated bonus rate selected by the policyholder when the product is purchased and the bonus rates Prudential subsequently declares each year during the term of the product. If the total bonus rates fall below the anticipated rate, then the annuity income falls.

On 31 December 2007, Prudential completed the transfer of 62,000 with-profits annuity policies from Equitable Life, with assets of approximately £1.7 billion. The policies transferred form part of the Defined Charge Participating Sub-Fund of Prudential’s with-profit fund. Profits to shareholders will emerge on a ‘charges less expenses’ basis and policyholders will be entitled to 100 per cent of the investment earnings.

At 31 December 2007, £29.5 billion (2006: £29.0 billion) of investments relate to annuity business of PAL and PRIL. These investments are predominantly in debt securities (including retail price index-linked bonds to match retail price index-linked annuities), loans and deposits and are duration matched with the estimated duration of the liabilities they support.

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iii SAIF

SAIF is a ring-fenced sub-fund of the PAC long-term fund formed following the acquisition of the mutually owned Scottish Amicable Life Assurance Society in 1997. No new business may be written in SAIF, although regular premiums are still being paid on policies in force at the time of the acquisition and incremental premiums are permitted on these policies.

The fund is solely for the benefit of policyholders of SAIF. Shareholders have no interest in the profits of this fund although they are entitled to asset management fees on this business.

The process for determining policyholder bonuses of SAIF with-profits policies, which constitute the vast majority of obligations of the funds, is similar to that for the with-profits policies of the WPSF. However, in addition, the surplus assets in SAIF are allocated to policies in an orderly and equitable distribution over time as enhancements to policyholder benefits i.e. in excess of those based on asset share.

Provision is made for the risks attaching to some SAIF unitised with-profits policies that have MVR-free dates and for those SAIF products which have a guaranteed minimum benefit on death or maturity of premiums accumulated at four per cent per annum.

The Group’s main exposure to guaranteed annuities in the UK is through SAIF and a provision of £563 million was held in SAIF at 31 December 2007 (2006: £561 million) to honour the guarantees. As SAIF is a separate sub-fund solely for the benefit of policyholders of SAIF this provision has no impact on the financial position of the Group’s shareholders’ equity.

iv Unit-linked (non-annuity) and other non-profit business

Prudential UK insurance operations also have an extensive book of unit-linked policies of varying types and provide a range of other non-profit business such as credit life and protection contracts. These contracts do not contain significant financial guarantees.

There are no guaranteed maturity values or guaranteed annuity options on unit-linked policies except for minor amounts for certain policies linked to cash units within SAIF.

d Exposure to market risk

i Non-linked life and pension business

For with-profits business, the absence of guaranteed surrender values and the flexibility given by the operation of the bonus system means that the majority of the investments backing the with-profits business are in equities and real estate with the balance in debt securities, deposits and loans.

The investments supporting the protection business are small in value and tend to be fixed maturities reflecting the guaranteed nature of the liabilities.

ii Pension annuity business

Prudential’s UK annuity business mainly employs fixed income investments (including UK retail price index-linked assets) because the liabilities consist of guaranteed payments for as long as each annuitant or surviving partner is alive. Retail price index-linked assets are used to back pension annuities where the payments are linked to the RPI.

iii Unit-linked business

Except through the second order effect on asset management fees, the unit-linked business of the UK insurance operations is not exposed to market risk. The lack of exposure arises from the contract nature whereby policyholder benefits reflect asset value movements of the unit-linked funds.

e Process for setting assumptions and determining contract liabilities

i Overview

The calculation of the contract liabilities involves the setting of assumptions for future experience. This is done following detailed review of the relevant experience including, in particular, mortality, expenses, tax, economic assumptions and where applicable, persistency.

For with-profits business written in the WPSF or SAIF, a market consistent valuation is performed (as described in section (ii) below). Additional assumptions required are for persistency and the management actions under which the fund is managed. Assumptions used for a market consistent valuation typically do not contain margins, whereas those used for the valuation of other classes of business do.

Mortality assumptions are set based on the results of the most recent experience analysis looking at the experience over recent years of the relevant business. For non-profit business, a margin for adverse deviation is added. Different assumptions are applied for different product groups. For annuitant mortality, assumptions for current mortality rates are based on recent experience investigations and expected future improvements in mortality. The expected future improvements are based on recent experience and projections of the business and industry experience generally.

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Maintenance and, for some classes of business, termination expense assumptions are expressed as per policy amounts. They are set based on the expenses incurred during the year, including an allowance for ongoing investment expenditure and allocated between entities and product groups in accordance with the operation’s internal cost allocation model. For non-profit business a margin for adverse deviation is added to this amount. Expense inflation assumptions are set consistent with the economic basis and based on the difference between yields on nominal gilts and index-linked gilts.

The actual renewal expenses charged to SAIF continued to be based on the tariff arrangement specified in the Scottish Amicable Life Assurance Society Scheme up to 31 December 2007, when the tariff arrangement terminated. This provided an additional margin in SAIF as the unit costs derived from actual expenses (and used to derive the recommended assumptions) were generally significantly greater than the tariff costs. From 1 January 2008 the full expenses incurred are being charged to SAIF.

The assumptions for asset management expenses are based on the charges specified in agreements with the Group’s asset management operations, plus a margin for adverse deviation for non-profit business.

Tax assumptions are set equal to current rates of taxation.

For non-profit business excluding unit-linked business, the valuation interest rates used to discount the liabilities are based on the yields as at the valuation date on the assets backing the technical provisions. For fixed interest securities the gross redemption yield is used except for the PAL and PRIL annuity business where the internal rate of return of the assets backing the liabilities is used. For property it is the rental yield, and for equities it is the greater of the dividend yield and the average of the dividend yield and the earnings yield. An adjustment is made to the yield on non risk-free fixed interest securities and property to reflect credit risk. To calculate the non-unit reserves for linked business, assumptions have been set for the gross unit growth rate and the rate of inflation of maintenance expenses, as well as for the valuation interest rate as described above.

ii WPSF and SAIF

The policyholder liabilities reported for the WPSF are primarily for two broad types of business. These are accumulating and conventional with-profits contracts. The policyholder liabilities of the WPSF are accounted for under FRS 27.

The provisions have been determined on a basis consistent with the detailed methodology included in regulations contained in the FSA’s rules for the determination of reserves on the FSA’s ‘realistic’ Peak 2 basis. In aggregate, the regime has the effect of placing a value on the liabilities of UK with-profits contracts, which reflects the amounts expected to be paid based on the current value of investments held by the with-profits funds and current circumstances. These contracts are a combination of insurance and investment contracts with discretionary participation features, as defined by IFRS 4.

The FSA’s Peak 2 calculation under the realistic regime requires the value of liabilities to be calculated as:

— The with-profits benefits reserve (WPBR); plus

— future policy related liabilities (FPRL); plus

— the realistic current liabilities of the fund.

The WPBR is primarily based on the retrospective calculation of accumulated asset shares but is adjusted to reflect future expected policyholder benefits and other outgoings. Asset shares are calculated as the accumulation of all items of income and outgo that are relevant to each policy type. Income comprises credits for premiums, investment returns (including unrealised gains), and miscellaneous profits. Outgo comprises charges for tax (including an allowance for tax on unrealised gains), guarantees and smoothing, mortality and morbidity, shareholders’ profit transfers, miscellaneous losses, and expenses and commission (net of any tax relief).

The FPRL must include a market consistent valuation of costs of guarantees, options and smoothing, less any related charges, and this amount must be determined using either a stochastic approach, hedging costs or a series of deterministic projections with attributed probabilities.

The assumptions used in the stochastic models are calibrated to produce risk-free returns on each asset class. Volatilities of, and correlations between, investment returns from different asset classes are as determined by the Group’s Portfolio Management Group and aim to be market consistent.

The cost of guarantees, options and smoothing is very sensitive to the bonus, market value reduction (MVR), and investment policy employed and therefore the stochastic modelling incorporates a range of management actions that would help to protect the fund in adverse investment scenarios. Substantial flexibility has been included in the modelled management actions in order to reflect the discretion that is retained in adverse investment conditions, thereby avoiding the creation of unreasonable minimum capital requirements. The management actions assumed are consistent with the Group’s management policy for with-profits funds and the Group’s disclosures in the publicly available Principles and Practices of Financial Management.

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The contract liabilities for with-profits business also require assumptions for persistency. These are set based on the results of recent experience analysis.

iii Annuity business

The contract liabilities for PAL and PRIL are based on the FSA regulatory solvency basis. The valuation is then modified for IFRS reporting purposes to remove some of the margins for prudence within the assumptions, and contingency reserves, which are required under the solvency basis applied for regulatory purposes, but not for financial accounting.

The contract liabilities are the discounted value of future claim payments, adjusted for investment expenses and future administration costs. The interest rates used for discounting claim payments are derived from the yields on the assets held with an allowance for default risk.

The mortality assumptions are set in light of recent population and internal experience. The assumptions used are percentages of standard actuarial mortality tables with an allowance for future mortality improvements. Where annuities have been sold on an enhanced basis to impaired lives an additional age adjustment is made. The percentages of the standard table used are selected according to the source of business. The range of percentages used is set out in the following tables:

PAL PRIL
2007 Males Females   Males Females
In payment 106% – 126% PNMA00
(C = 2000) with medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 2.25% up to age 90, tapering to zero at age 120
84% – 117% PNFA00
(C = 2000) with 75% of medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 1.25% up to age 90, tapering to zero at age 120
  99% – 114% PNMA00
(C = 2000) with medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 2.25% up to age 90, tapering to zero at age 120
85% – 103% PNFA00
(C = 2000) with 75% of medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 1.25% up to age 90, tapering to zero at age 120
In deferment AM92 minus 4 years AF92 minus 4 years   AM92 minus 4 years AF92 minus 4 years

PAL PRIL
2006 Males Females   Males Females
In payment 106% – 126% PNMA00
(C = 2000) with medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 1.25%
84% – 117% PNFA00
(C = 2000) with 75% of medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 0.75%
  99% – 114% PNMA00
(C = 2000) with medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 1.25%
85% – 103% PNFA00
(C = 2000) with 75% of medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 0.75%
In deferment AM92 minus 4 years AF92 minus 4 years   AM92 minus 4 years AF92 minus 4 years

PAL PRIL
2005 Males Females   Males Females
In payment 93% – 100% PMA92
(C = 2004) with medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 1.25%
84% – 105% PFA92
(C = 2004) with 75% of medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 0.75%
  88% – 100% PMA92
(C = 2004) with medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 1.25%
84% – 102% PFA92
(C = 2004) with 75% of medium cohort improvement table with a minimum annual improvement of 0.75%
In deferment AM92 minus 4 years AF92 minus 4 years   AM92 minus 4 years AF92 minus 4 years

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iv Unit-linked (non-annuity) and other non-profit business

The majority of other long-term business written in the UK insurance operations is unit-linked business or other business with similar features. For these contracts the attaching liability reflects the unit value obligation and provision for expenses and mortality risk. The latter component is determined by applying mortality assumptions on a basis that is appropriate for the policyholder profile.

For unit-linked business, the assets covering unit liabilities are exposed to market risk, but the residual risk when considering the unit-linked liabilities and assets together is limited to the effect on fund-based charges.

For those contracts where the level of insurance risk is insignificant the assets and liabilities arising under the contracts are distinguished between those that relate to the financial instrument liability and acquisition costs and deferred income that relate to the component of the contract that relates to investment management. Acquisition costs and deferred income are recognised consistent with the level of service provision in line with the requirements of IAS 18.

f Reinsurance

The Group’s UK insurance business cedes only minor amounts of business outside the Group. During 2007, reinsurance premiums for externally ceded business were £59 million (2006: £58 million) and reinsurance recoverable insurance assets were £335 million (2006: £510 million) in aggregate. The gains and losses recognised in profit and loss for these contracts were immaterial.

g Effect of changes in assumptions used to measure insurance assets and liabilities

2007

For UK insurance operations, the 2007 results have been determined after making changes to mortality assumptions for the annuity business and other assumptions for the WPSF and releasing excess margins in the aggregate liabilities that had previously been set aside as an indirect extra allowance for longevity related risks.

Download as excel file
2007 £m
With-profits
sub-fund
  Shareholder-
backed business
Effect of strengthening of mortality assumptionsnote a (435)   (276)
Modelling of management actionsnote b (167)  
Strengthening of other assumptionsnote c (62)  
(664)   (276)
Release of other margins:
Projected benefit relatednote d 13   104
Investment related:note e
Default margins 199   48
Asset management fees 60  
259   48
Expenses related notes c,f    68
Other notes c,g    90
272   310
Net charge to unallocated surplus (392)
Net credit to shareholder result   34

Notes

a The mortality assumptions have been strengthened by increasing the minimum level of future improvement rate.

b Given the continuing strong financial position of the fund, the assumed management actions relating to with-profits business have been revised in order to better reflect the benefits to policyholders that can be supported by the fund.

c The effects of the strengthening of other assumptions for the WPSF of £62 million is net of a release of PAL’s expense reserve of £11 million and other additional margins in PAL’s liabilities of £40 million.

d The release of projected benefit related margins primarily relates to modelling improvements that have been made during 2007.

e The release of investment-related margins includes £48 million in respect of default margins for shareholder-backed business and £199 million for PAL. The resulting assumptions for expected defaults, after allowing for the release of margins, remain appropriate given economic conditions at 31 December 2007. In addition, for PAL, there is a release of £60 million in respect of asset management fees.

f A release of expense reserves has been made following recent expense reductions.

g This amount reflects the release of other additional margins in the liabilities that are no longer appropriate in light of the explicit strengthening of the mortality assumptions.

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2006

For with-profits business, there was no significant change in assumptions in 2006.

There was no change in mortality assumptions for PAL in 2006 which had a material effect on the measurement of the insurance liabilities. Liabilities for PAL were increased by £47 million for the effect of change of assumptions for renewal expenses. As PAL is owned by the WPSF, this change had no effect on shareholder profit.

In 2006, the FSA made regulatory changes for UK regulated shareholder-backed non-participating business. These changes were confirmed in the December 2006 policy statement PS06/14.

The changes to the FSA rules allow insurance liabilities for this business to incorporate more realism. In particular this is achieved by:

— setting technical provisions for expenses not directly attributable to one particular contract at a homogenous risk group level and not, as previously, at an individual contract level for all non-profit business; and

— recognising the economic effect of making a prudent lapse rate assumption. Previously, no lapses were assumed.

Under IFRS 4, the effect of this change is accounted for as a change in estimate and there was a consequent increase in operating profit based on longer-term investment returns of £46 million.

In addition to the £46 million credit described above, a charge of £4 million was recognised in 2006 for the effect of change of assumption for renewal and termination expenses mainly in respect of PAC.

h Amount, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows from insurance contracts

At 31 December 2007, the EEV basis value of in-force business of UK insurance operations, after taking account of the cost of encumbered capital and the cost of the time value of financial options and guarantees, was £5,334 million (2006: £4,835 million). This value has been determined after applying the principles of valuation described in note D1 and the following key assumptions:

Download as excel file
2007 %   2006 %
Risk discount rate for in-force business at the start of the year 7.85 8.0
Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rates of investment return:
UK equities 8.55 8.6
Overseas equities 8.1 to 10.2 8.6 to 9.3
Property 6.8 7.1
Gilts 4.55 4.6
Corporate bonds – with-profits fundsnote i 6.0 5.3
– other business 6.25 5.3
Expected long-term rate of inflation 3.2 3.1
Post-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for the with-profits
sub-fund pensions business (where no tax applies) 7.85 7.5
Life business 6.9 6.6
Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for annuity business:note ii
Fixed annuities 5.4 to 5.6 5.0 to 5.1
Linked annuities 5.0 to 5.2 4.8 to 5.0

Notes

i The assumed long-term rate for corporate bonds for 2007 for with-profits business reflects the purchase of credit default swaps.

ii The pre-tax rate of return for annuity business is based on the gross redemption yield on the backing assets net of a best estimate allowance for future defaults.

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The sensitivity of the value of in-force business and net worth to changes in key assumptions is as follows:

Download as excel file
2007 £m   2006 £m
Economic assumptions:
Discount rates – 1% increase (534) (480)
Interest rates (including consequential changes for assumed investment returns for all asset
classes, market values of debt securities, and all risk discount rates):*
– 1% increase (95) (66)
– 1% decrease 113 69
Equity/property yields – 1% rise 405 382
Equity/property market values – 10% fall (519) (502)
Non-economic assumptions:
Maintenance expenses – 10% decrease 36 33
Lapse rates – 10% decrease 87 75
Mortality and morbidity – 5% decrease in base rates (i.e. increased longevity) (103) (87)

*2006 comparatives for the sensitivity to interest rate changes have been adjusted from previously published data for the effect of revisions to the calculation of the with-profits fund.

i Sensitivity of IFRS basis profit or loss and equity to market and other risks

The risks to which the IFRS basis results of the UK insurance operations are sensitive are asset/liability matching, mortality experience and payment assumptions for shareholder-backed annuity business. Further details are described below.

i With-profits business

SAIF

Shareholders have no interest in the profits of SAIF but are entitled to the asset management fees paid on the assets of the fund.

With-profits sub-fund business

For with-profits business (including non-participating business of PAL which is owned by the WPSF) adjustments to liabilities and any related tax effects are recognised in the income statement. However, except for any impact on the annual declaration of bonuses, shareholders’ profit for with-profits business is unaffected. This is because IFRS basis profits for with-profits business, which are determined on the same basis as on preceding UK GAAP, solely reflect one-ninth of the cost of bonuses declared for the year.

The main factors that influence the determination of bonus rates are the return on the investments of the fund, the effect of inflation, taxation, the expenses of the fund chargeable to policyholders and the degree to which investment returns are smoothed. Mortality and other insurance risk are relatively minor factors.

Unallocated surplus represents the excess of assets over policyholder liabilities of the fund. As unallocated surplus of the WPSF is recorded as a liability, movements in its value do not affect shareholders’ profits or equity.

The level of unallocated surplus is particularly sensitive to the level of investment returns on the portion of the life fund assets that represents the surplus. The effects for 2007 and 2006 are demonstrated in note D5.

ii Shareholder-backed annuity business

Profits from shareholder-backed annuity business are most sensitive to:

— the extent to which the duration of the assets held closely matches the expected duration of the liabilities under the contracts. Assuming close matching, the impact of short-term asset value movements as a result of interest rate movements will broadly offset changes in the value of liabilities caused by movements in valuation rates of interest;

— actual versus expected default rates on assets held;

— the difference between long-term rates of return on corporate bonds and risk-free rates;

— the variance between actual and expected mortality experience;

— the extent to which expected future mortality experience gives rise to changes in the measurement of liabilities; and

— changes in renewal expense levels.

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A decrease in assumed mortality rates of one per cent would decrease gross profits by approximately £35 million (2006: £34 million). A decrease in credit default assumptions of five basis points would increase gross profits by £72 million (2006: £64 million). A decrease in renewal expenses (excluding asset management expenses) of five per cent would increase gross profits by £13 million (2006: £14 million). The effect on profits would be approximately symmetrical for changes in assumptions that are directionally opposite to those explained above.

iii Unit-linked and other business

Unit-linked and other business represents a comparatively small proportion of the in-force business of the UK insurance operations.

Profits from unit-linked and similar contracts primarily arise from the excess of charges to policyholders, for management of assets under the Company’s stewardship, over expenses incurred. The former is most sensitive to the net accretion of funds under management as a function of new business and lapse and mortality experience. The accounting impact of the latter is dependent upon the amortisation of acquisition costs in line with the emergence of margins (for insurance contracts) and amortisation in line with service provision (for the investment management component of investment contracts). By virtue of the design features of most of the contracts which provide low levels of mortality cover, the profits are relatively insensitive to changes in mortality experience.

iv Shareholder exposure to interest rate risk and other market risk

By virtue of the fund structure, product features and basis of accounting described in note D2(c) and (e), the policyholder liabilities of the UK insurance operations are, except for pension annuity business, not generally exposed to interest rate risk. For pension annuity business, liabilities are exposed to fair value interest rate risk. However, the net exposure to the PAC WPSF (for PAL) and shareholders (for liabilities of PRIL and the non-profit sub-fund) is very substantially ameliorated by virtue of the close matching of assets with appropriate duration.

The close matching by the Group of assets of appropriate duration to annuity liabilities is based on maintaining economic and regulatory capital. The measurement of liabilities under capital reporting requirements and IFRS is not the same as detailed in note D2(e)(iii), with contingency reserves and some other margins for prudence within the assumptions required under the FSA regulatory solvency basis not included for IFRS reporting purposes. As a result IFRS equity is higher than regulatory capital and therefore more sensitive to interest rate risk.

The estimated sensitivity of the UK non-linked shareholder backed business (principally pension annuities business) to a movement in interest rates of one per cent as at 31 December 2007 and 2006 is as follows:

Download as excel file
  2007 £m 2006 £m
Fall of 1% Rise of 1%   Fall of 1% Rise of 1%
Carrying value of debt securities and derivatives 1,930 (1,634)   1,802 (1,529)
Policyholder liabilities (1,777) 1,467   (1,671) 1,374
Related deferred tax effects (43) 47   (40) 47
Net sensitivity of profit after tax and equity 110 (120)   91 (108)

In addition the shareholder backed portfolio of UK non-linked insurance operations covering liabilities and shareholders’ equity includes equity securities and investment property. Excluding any second order effects on the measurement of the liabilities for future cash flow to the policyholder, a 10 per cent fall in their value would have given rise to a £86 million and £42 million reduction in pre-tax profit for 2007 and 2006. After related deferred tax there would have been a £62 million and £29 million reduction in shareholders’ equity at 31 December 2007 and 2006 respectively.

The market risk sensitivities shown above reflect the impact of temporary market movements and, therefore, the primary effect of such movements would, in the Company’s supplementary analysis of profits be included within the short-term fluctuations in investment returns.

j Duration of liabilities

With the exception of most unitised with-profits bonds and other whole of life contracts the majority of the contracts of the UK insurance operations have a contract term. However, in effect, the maturity term of contracts reflects the earlier of death, maturity, or lapsation. In addition, with-profit contract liabilities as noted in note D2(e) above include projected future bonuses based on current investment values. The actual amounts payable will vary with future investment performance of SAIF and the WPSF.

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The tables below show the carrying value of the policyholder liabilities. Separately, the Group uses cash flow projections of expected benefit payments as part of the determination of the value of in-force business when preparing EEV basis results. The tables below also show the maturity profile of the cash flows used for 2007 and 2006 for that purpose for insurance contracts, as defined by IFRS, i.e. those containing significant insurance risk, and investment contracts, which do not.

2007 £m
With-profits business   Annuity business
(Insurance contracts)
  Other
Insurance
contracts
Investment
contracts
Total   PAL PRIL Total   Insurance
contracts
Investment
contracts
Total
Policyholder liabilities 47,915 29,480 77,395   12,564 13,402 25,966   8,917 12,059 20,976
2007 %
Expected maturity:
0 to 5 years 47 25 38   32 31 32   32 31 31
5 to 10 years 27 23 26   24 23 24   23 22 23
10 to 15 years 13 19 16   18 17 17   18 20 19
15 to 20 years 7 15 10   12 12 12   12 13 12
20 to 25 years 4 11 6   7 8 7   8 6 7
Over 25 years 2 7 4   7 9 8   7 8 8

2006 £m
With-profits business Annuity business
(Insurance contracts)
Other
Insurance
contracts
Investment
contracts
Total   PAL PRIL Total   Insurance
contracts
Investment
contracts
Total
Policyholder liabilities 46,223 28,677 74,900   13,379 12,327 25,706   8,394 11,441 19,835
2006 %
Expected maturity:
0 to 5 years 47 23 36   32 30 31   32 37 34
5 to 10 years 28 22 26   24 23 24   24 23 23
10 to 15 years 13 17 15   18 17 18   18 14 16
15 to 20 years 6 15 10   12 12 12   12 13 13
20 to 25 years 3 13 7   7 8 7   7 5 7
Over 25 years 3 10 6   7 10 8   7 8 7

Notes

i The cash flow projections of expected benefit payments used in the maturity profile table above are from value of in-force business and exclude the value of future new business, including vesting of internal pension contracts.

ii Benefit payments do not reflect the pattern of bonuses and shareholder transfers in respect of the with-profits business.

iii Investment contracts under Other comprise certain unit-linked and similar contracts accounted for under IAS 39 and IAS 18.

iv For business with no maturity term included within the contracts, for example with-profits investment bonds such as Prudence Bond, an assumption is made as to likely duration based on prior experience.

v The maturity tables shown above have been prepared on a discounted basis. Details of undiscounted cash flow for investment contracts are shown in note G2.

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D3: US insurance operations

a Summary results and balance sheet

i Results and movements on shareholders’ equity

2007 £m   2006 £m
Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns 444 398
Short-term fluctuations in investment returns (18) 53
Profit before shareholder tax 426 451
Tax (126) (150)
Profit for the year 300 301

2007 £m   2006 £m
Profit for the year 300 301
Items recognised directly in equity:
Exchange movements (42) (377)
Unrealised valuation movements on securities classified as available-for-sale:
Unrealised holding losses arising during the year (231) (208)
Less losses included in the income statement (13) 7
(244) (201)
Related change in amortisation of deferred income and acquisition costs 88 75
Related tax 54 50
Total items of income and expense recognised directly in equity (144) (453)
Total income and expense for the year 156 (152)
Transfers to Central companies (122) (91)
Net increase (decrease) in equity 34 (243)
Shareholders’ equity at beginning of year 2,656 2,899
Shareholders’ equity at end of year 2,690 2,656

In addition, for Jackson, included within the movements in shareholders’ equity is a net reduction in value of Jackson’s debt securities classified as ‘available-for-sale’ under IAS 39 of £244 million. This reduction reflects the effects of widened credit spreads in the US bond market partially offset by the effect of reduced US interest rates and a steepening yield curve. These movements do not reflect defaults or permanent impairments.

With the exception of debt securities for US insurance operations classified as ‘available-for-sale’ under IAS 39, unrealised value movements on the Group’s investments are booked within the income statement. For with-profits operations such value movements are reflected in changes to asset share liabilities to policyholders and the liability for unallocated surplus. For shareholder-backed operations the unrealised value movements form part of the total return for the year booked in the profit before tax attributable to shareholders, which is then, in the Company’s supplementary IFRS information, analysed between operating profit based on longer-term investment return and short-term fluctuations in investment returns.

However, for debt securities classified as ‘available-for-sale’, unless impaired, fair value movements are recorded as a movement in shareholder reserves direct to equity. Impairments are recorded in the income statement as shown in note B1.

In general, the debt securities of the Group’s US insurance operations are purchased with the intention and the ability to hold them for the longer term. In 2007, there was a movement in the balance sheet value for these debt securities classified as available-for-sale from a net unrealised gain of £110 million to a net unrealised loss of £136 million. During 2007, US interest rates fell and the yield curve steepened. Offsetting this movement were market price effects resulting from increasing credit spreads and global credit concerns. As a result of these factors, the gross unrealised gain in the balance sheet decreased from £366 million at 31 December 2006 to £303 million at 31 December 2007 while the gross unrealised loss increased from £256 million at 31 December 2006 to £439 million at 31 December 2007. Details of the securities in an unrealised position are shown in D3(b) below.

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These features are included in the table shown below of the movements in the values of available-for-sale securities:

Download as excel file
2007   2006
£m Change in
unrealised
appreciation
£m
£m
Assets fair valued at below book value
Book value   10,730 11,258
Unrealised loss   (439) (183) (256)
Fair value (as included in balance sheet)   10,291 11,002
Assets fair valued at or above book value
Book value   8,041 8,208
Unrealised gain   303 (63) 366
Fair value (as included in balance sheet)   8,344 8,574
Total
Book value   18,771 19,466
Net unrealised (loss) gain   (136) (246) 110
Fair value (as included in balance sheet)*   18,635 19,576
£m
Reflected as part of movement in shareholders’ equity
Movement in unrealised appreciation   (244)
Exchange movements   (2)
(246)

*Debt securities for US operations as included in the balance sheet of £19,002 million comprise £18,635 million in respect of securities classified as ‘available-for-sale’ and £367 million for securities of consolidated investment funds classified as ‘fair value through profit and loss’.

Included within the movement in unrealised losses for the debt securities of Jackson of £244 million as shown above was a value reduction of £55 million relating to the sub-prime and Alt-A securities as referred to in section G2.

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ii Balance sheet

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Variable annuity separate account assets and liabilities Fixed annuity, GIC and other business


US insurance operations
2007 2006
note i note i Total Total
£m £m £m £m
Assets
Intangible assets attributable to shareholders:
Deferred acquisition costs and other intangible assets 1,928 1,928 1,712
Total 1,928 1,928 1,712
Other non-investment and non-cash assets 1,651 1,651 1,588
Investments of long-term business and other operations:
Investment properties 8 8 20
Financial investments:
Loans note ii 3,258 3,258 3,254
Equity securities and portfolio holdings in unit trusts 15,027 480 15,507 11,710
Debt securitiesD3b 19,002 19,002 20,146
Other investmentsnote iii 762 762 542
Deposits 258 258 457
Total investments 15,027 23,768 38,795 36,129
Cash and cash equivalents 169 169 99
Total assets 15,027 27,516 42,543 39,528
Equity and liabilities
Equity
Shareholders’ equity 2,690 2,690 2,656
Minority interests 1 1 1
Total equity 2,691 2,691 2,657
Liabilities
Policyholder liabilities: note iv
Insurance contract liabilities 15,027 17,899 32,926 30,184
Investment contract liabilities without discretionary participation
features (GIC and annuity certain) 1,922 1,922 1,562
Total 15,027 19,821 34,848 31,746
Core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations 125 125 127
Operational borrowings attributable to shareholder-financed operations 591 591 743
Other non-insurance liabilities 4,288 4,288 4,255
Total liabilities 15,027 24,825 39,852 36,871
Total equity and liabilities 15,027 27,516 42,543 39,528

Notes

i Assets and liabilities attaching to variable annuity business that are not held in the separate account are shown within other business.

ii Loans

The loans of Jackson of £3,258 million comprise mortgage loans of £2,841 million and policy loans of £417 million. All of the mortgage loans are commercial mortgage loans which are collateralised by properties. The property types are mainly industrial, multi-family residential, suburban office, retail and hotel.

Jackson’s mortgage loan portfolio does not include any single-family residential mortgage loans and is therefore not exposed to the risk of defaults associated with residential sub-prime mortgage loans.

The policy loans are fully secured by individual life insurance policies or annuity policies.

These loans are accounted for at amortised cost, less any impairment.

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iii Other investments comprise:

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2007
£m
Derivative assets (note G3) 390
Partnerships in investment pools and other 372
762

Partnerships in investment pools and other comprise primarily investments in limited partnerships. These include interest in the PPM America Private Equity Fund and diversified investments in 164 other partnerships by independent money managers that generally invest in various equities and fixed income loans and securities.

iv Summary policyholder liabilities (net of reinsurance) and reserves at 31 December 2007

The policyholder liabilities, net of reinsurers’ share of £436 million (2006: £427 million), reflect balances in respect of the following:

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2007 2006
£m £m
Policy reserves and liabilities on non-linked business:
Reserves for future policyholder benefits and claims payable 916 935
Deposits on investment contracts (as defined under US GAAP) 16,784 17,690
Guaranteed investment contracts 1,685 1,327
Unit-linked (variable annuity) business 15,027 11,367
34,412 31,319

In addition to the policyholder liabilities above, Jackson has entered into a programme of funding arrangements under contracts which, in substance, are almost identical to GICs. The liabilities under these funding arrangements totalled £2,607 million (2006: £2,552 million) and are included in ‘other non-insurance liabilities’ in the balance sheet above.

b Information on credit risks of debt securities

Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
Summary Carrying Carrying
value value
Corporate security and commercial loans:
Publicly traded and SEC Rule 144A traded 10,345 11,569
Non-SEC Rule 144A traded 2,613 2,458
12,958 14,027
Residential mortgage-backed securities 2,939 2,827
Commercial mortgage-backed securities 1,532 1,155
Other debt securities 1,573 2,137
Total debt securities 19,002 20,146

Credit quality

For statutory reporting in the US, debt securities are classified into six quality categories specified by the Securities Valuation Office of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). The categories range from Class 1 (the highest) to Class 6 (the lowest). Performing securities are designated as Classes 1 to 5. Securities in or near default are designated Class 6. Securities designated as Class 3, 4, 5 and 6 are non-investment grade securities. Generally, securities rated AAA to A by nationally recognised statistical ratings organisations are reflected in Class 1, BBB in Class 2, BB in Class 3 and B and below in Classes 4 to 6. If a designation is not currently available from the NAIC, Jackson’s investment adviser, PPM America, provides the designation for the purposes of disclosure below.

The following table shows the quality of publicly traded and SEC Rule 144A traded debt securities held by the US operations as at 31 December 2007 and 2006 by NAIC classifications:

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Download as excel file
2007 2006
Carrying value Carrying value
£m % of total £m % of total
NAIC designation:
1 4,338 42 4,631 40
2 5,194 50 5,850 51
3 542 5 817 7
4 231 2 249 2
5 40 1 22 0
10,345 100 11,569 100

The following table shows the quality of the non-SEC Rule 144A traded private placement portfolio by NAIC classifications:

Download as excel file
2007 2006
Carrying value Carrying value
£m % of total £m % of total
NAIC designation:
1 1,011 39 861 35
2 1,351 52 1,345 54
3 206 8 212 9
4 45 1 40 2
5
2,613 100 2,458 100

The following table shows the quality of residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities:

Download as excel file
2007 2006
Carrying
value
£m (unless otherwise stated)
Carrying
value
£m (unless otherwise stated)
Residential mortgage-backed securities (included within debt securities)
Total residential mortgage-backed securities 2,939 2,827
Residential mortgage-backed securities rated AAA or equivalent by a nationally recognised
statistical ratings organisation (including Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch):
Amount 2,542 1,750
Percentage of total 86.5% 61.9%
Residential mortgage-backed securities rated NAIC 1:
Amount 2,932 2,824
Percentage of total 99.8% 99.9%
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (included within debt securities)
Total commercial mortgage-backed securities 1,532 1,155
Commercial mortgage-backed securities rated AAA or equivalent by a nationally recognised
statistical ratings organisation (including Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch):
Amount 1,351 1,090
Percentage of total 88.2% 94.4%
Commercial mortgage-backed securities rated NAIC 1:
Amount 1,462 1,076
Percentage of total 95.4% 93.2%

Included within other debt securities of £1,573 million in the summary shown above are £944 million (2006: £1,133 million) of asset backed securities held directly by Jackson, of which £817 million (2006: £791 million) were NAIC designation 1 and £127 million (2006: £342 million) NAIC designation 2. In addition, other debt securities includes £316 million (2006: £405 million) in respect of securities held by the Piedmont trust entity (see note G1) and £313 million (2006: £485 million) from the consolidation of investment funds managed by PPM America.

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In addition to the ratings disclosed above, the following table summarises by rating the debt securities held by US insurance operations as at 31 December 2007 using Standard and Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s and Fitch ratings:

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2007 £m
Carrying value
S&P – AAA 3,896
S&P – AA+ to AA- 1,187
S&P – A+ to A- 3,657
S&P – BBB+ to BBB- 5,415
S&P – Other 1,113
15,268
Moody’s – Aaa 549
Moody’s –Aa1 to Aa3 118
Moody’s –A1 to A3 47
Moody’s – Baa1 to Baa3 79
Moody’s – Other 78
871
Fitch 380
Other 2,483
Total debt securities 19,002

In the table above, S&P ratings have been used where available. For securities where S&P ratings are not immediately available, those produced by Moody’s and then Fitch have been used as an alternative.

The amounts within Other which are not rated by S&P, Moody’s or Fitch have the following NAIC classifications:

Download as excel file
2007 £m
NAIC 1 1,079
NAIC 2 1,311
NAIC 3-6 93
2,483

Included in debt securities are £2,863 million (2006: £2,859 million) of securities which are not quoted on active markets and are valued using valuation techniques.

Debt securities above are shown net of cumulative impairment losses on retained securities of £246 million (2006: £266 million).

Included within the debt securities of Jackson at 31 December 2007 are exposures to sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages and CDO funds as follows:

Download as excel file
2007 £m
Carrying value
Sub-prime mortgages (S&P rated AAA) 237
Alt-A mortgages (77% AAA, 17% AA) 660
897
CDO funds* 260
1,157

*Including Group’s economic interest in Piedmont (as described in note G1) and other consolidated CDO portfolios.

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Jackson defines its exposure to sub-prime mortgages as investments in residential mortgage-backed securities in which the underlying borrowers have a US Fair Isaac Credit Organisation (FICO) credit score of 659 or lower.

Debt securities classified as available-for-sale in an unrealised loss position

The unrealised losses in the US insurance operations balance sheet on unimpaired securities are (£439) million (2006: £(256) million). This reflects assets with fair market value and book value of £10,291 million and £10,730 million respectively.

The following table shows some key attributes of the debt securities that are in an unrealised loss position at 31 December 2007 and 2006.

Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
Fair value of securities as a percentage of book value Fair value Unrealised
loss
Fair value Unrealised
loss
Between 90% and 100% 9,370 (274) 10,941 (248)
Between 80% and 90% 784 (122) 61 (8)
Below 80% 137 (43)
10,291 (439) 11,002 (256)

Included within the table above are amounts relating to sub-prime and Alt-A securities of:

Download as excel file
Fair value Unrealised loss
Fair value of securities as a percentage of book value £m £m
Between 90% and 100% 572 (24)
Between 80% and 90% 132 (22)
Below 80% 28 (10)
732 (56)

Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
Aged analysis of unrealised losses for the periods indicated Not
rated
Non- investment grade Investment
grade
Total Not
rated
Non- investment grade Investment grade Total
Less than 6 months (7) (8) (52) (67) (1) (1) (14) (16)
6 months to 1 year (10) (21) (105) (136) (3) (1) (10) (14)
1 year to 2 years (5) (2) (16) (23) (24) (10) (135) (169)
2 years to 3 years (24) (10) (140) (174) (5) (9) (14)
3 years to 4 years (3) (1) (5) (9) (5) (35) (40)
4 years to 5 years (3) (24) (27)
5 years to 6 years (2) (1) (3)
6 years to 7 years (1) (2) (3)
(53) (44) (342) (439) (40) (13) (203) (256)

At 31 December 2007, the gross unrealised losses in the balance sheet for the sub-prime and Alt-A securities in an unrealised loss position were £56 million. Sub-prime and Alt-A securities with unrealised losses of £37 million in the balance sheet at 31 December 2007 have been in an unrealised loss position for less than one year with the remaining securities with unrealised losses of £19 million being in an unrealised loss position for more than one year.

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Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
By maturity of security Unrealised
loss
Unrealised
loss
Less than 1 year (1) (1)
1 to 5 years (54) (29)
5 to 10 years (164) (113)
More than 10 years (60) (51)
Mortgage-backed securities and other debt securities (160) (62)
Total (439) (256)

c Products and guarantees

Jackson provides long-term savings and retirement products to retail and institutional customers throughout the US. Jackson offers fixed annuities (interest-sensitive, fixed indexed and immediate annuities), variable annuities (VA), life insurance and institutional products.

i Fixed annuities

Interest-sensitive annuities

At 31 December 2007, interest-sensitive fixed annuities accounted for 25 per cent (2006: 31 per cent) of policy and contract liabilities of Jackson. Interest-sensitive fixed annuities are primarily deferred annuity products that are used for retirement planning and for providing income in retirement. They permit tax-deferred accumulation of funds and flexible payout options.

The policyholder of an interest-sensitive fixed annuity pays Jackson a premium, which is credited to the policyholder’s account. Periodically, interest is credited to the policyholder’s account and in some cases administrative charges are deducted from the policyholder’s account. Jackson makes benefit payments at a future date as specified in the policy based on the value of the policyholder’s account at that date.

The policy provides that at Jackson’s discretion it may reset the interest rate, subject to a guaranteed minimum. The minimum guarantee varies from 1.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent (2006: 1.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent) depending on the jurisdiction of issue and the date of issue, with 80 per cent (2006: 80 per cent) of the fund at three per cent or less. The average guarantee rate is 3.1 per cent (2006: 3.1 per cent).

Approximately 30 per cent (2006: 35 per cent) of the interest-sensitive fixed annuities Jackson wrote in 2007 provide for a market value adjustment, that could be positive or negative, on surrenders in the surrender period of the policy. This formula-based adjustment approximates the change in value that assets supporting the product would realise as interest rates move up or down. The minimum guaranteed rate is not affected by this adjustment.

Fixed indexed annuities

Fixed indexed annuities accounted for seven per cent (2006: seven per cent) of Jackson’s policy and contract liabilities at 31 December 2007. Fixed indexed annuities vary in structure, but generally are deferred annuities that enable policyholders to obtain a portion of an equity-linked return (based on participation rates and caps) but provide a guaranteed minimum return. These guaranteed minimum rates are generally set at three per cent.

Jackson hedges the equity return risk on fixed indexed products using futures and options linked to the relevant index. The cost of these hedges is taken into account in setting the index participation rates or caps. Jackson bears the investment and surrender risk on these products.

Immediate annuities

At 31 December 2007, immediate annuities accounted for two per cent (2006: two per cent) of Jackson’s policy and contract liabilities. Immediate annuities guarantee a series of payments beginning within a year of purchase and continuing over either a fixed period of years and/or the life of the policyholder. If the term is for the life of the policyholder, then Jackson’s primary risk is mortality risk. The implicit interest rate on these products is based on the market conditions that exist at the time the policy is issued and is guaranteed for the term of the annuity.

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ii Variable annuities

At 31 December 2007, VAs accounted for 45 per cent (2006: 38 per cent) of Jackson’s policy and contract liabilities. VAs are deferred annuities that have the same tax advantages and payout options as interest-sensitive and fixed indexed annuities.

The primary differences between VAs and interest-sensitive or fixed indexed annuities are investment risk and return. If a policyholder chooses a VA, the rate of return depends upon the performance of the selected fund portfolio. Policyholders may allocate their investment to either the fixed or variable account. Investment risk on the variable account is borne by the policyholder, while investment risk on the fixed account is borne by Jackson through guaranteed minimum fixed rates of return. At 31 December 2007, approximately nine per cent (2006: 13 per cent) of VA funds were in fixed accounts.

Jackson issues VA contracts where it contractually guarantees to the contractholder either a) return of no less than total deposits made to the contract adjusted for any partial withdrawals, b) total deposits made to the contract adjusted for any partial withdrawals plus a minimum return, or c) the highest contract value on a specified anniversary date adjusted for any withdrawals following the contract anniversary. These guarantees include benefits that are payable in the event of death (guaranteed minimum death benefit (GMDB)), annuitisation (guaranteed minimum income benefit (GMIB)), or at specified dates during the accumulation period (guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB)) and guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit (GMAB). Jackson hedges these risks using equity options and futures contracts as described in note D3(d).

iii Life insurance

Jackson’s life insurance products accounted for nine per cent (2006: 10 per cent) of Jackson’s policy and contract liabilities at 31 December 2007. The products offered include variable universal life insurance, term life insurance and interest-sensitive life insurance.

iv Institutional products

Jackson’s institutional products consist of GICs, funding agreements (including agreements issued in conjunction with Jackson’s participation in the US Federal Home Loan Bank programme) and medium-term note funding agreements. At 31 December 2007, institutional products accounted for 12 per cent of policy and contract liabilities (2006: 12 per cent). Under a traditional GIC, the policyholder makes a lump sum deposit. The interest rate paid is fixed and established when the contract is issued. If deposited funds are withdrawn earlier than the specified term of the contract, an adjustment is made that approximates a market value adjustment.

Under a funding agreement, the policyholder either makes a lump sum deposit or makes specified periodic deposits. Jackson agrees to pay a rate of interest, which may be fixed but which is usually a floating short-term interest rate linked to an external index. The average term of the funding arrangements is one to two years. Funding agreements terminable by the policyholder with less than 90 days’ notice account for less than one per cent (2006: less than one per cent) of total policyholder reserves.

Medium-term note funding agreements are generally issued to support trust instruments issued on non-US exchanges or to qualified investors (as defined by SEC Rule 144A). Through the funding agreements, Jackson agrees to pay a rate of interest, which may be fixed or floating, to the holders of the trust instruments.

d Risk management

Jackson’s main exposures are to market risk through its exposure to interest rate risk and equity risk. Approximately 90 per cent (2006: 89 per cent) of its general account investments support interest-sensitive and fixed indexed annuities, life business and surplus and 10 per cent (2006: 11 per cent) support institutional business. All of these types of business contain considerable interest rate guarantee features and, consequently, require that the assets that support them are primarily fixed income or fixed maturity.

Prudential is exposed primarily to the following risks in the US arising from fluctuations in interest rates:

— The risk of loss related to meeting guaranteed rates of accumulation following a sharp and sustained fall in interest rates;

— the risk of loss related to policyholder withdrawals following a sharp and sustained increase in interest rates; and

— the risk of mismatch between the expected duration of certain annuity liabilities and prepayment risk and extension risk inherent in mortgage-backed securities.

Jackson enters into financial derivative transactions, including those noted below to reduce and manage business risks. These transactions manage the risk of a change in the value, yield, price, cash flows, or quantity of, or a degree of exposure with respect to assets, liabilities or future cash flows, which Jackson has acquired or incurred.

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Jackson uses free-standing derivative instruments for hedging purposes. Additionally, certain liabilities, primarily trust instruments supported by funding agreements, fixed indexed annuities, certain GMWB variable annuity features and reinsured GMIB variable annuity features contain embedded derivatives as defined by IAS 39, ‘Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement’. Jackson does not account for such derivatives as either fair value or cash flow hedges as might be permitted if the specific hedge documentation requirements of IAS 39 were followed. Financial derivatives, including derivatives embedded in certain host liabilities that have been separated for accounting and financial reporting purposes are carried at fair value.

Value movements on the derivatives are reported within the income statement. Under the Group’s accounting policies supplementary analysis of the profit before taxes attributable to shareholders is provided as shown in note B1. In preparing this analysis, value movements on Jackson’s derivative contracts, other than for certain equity-based product management activities, are included within short-term fluctuations in investment returns and excluded from operating results based on longer-term investment returns. Value movements on derivative instruments used for certain equity-based product management activities are included within operating results based on longer-term investment returns, as the value movements broadly offset the economic impact of changed levels of benefit payments and reserves as equity markets fluctuate. The types of derivatives used by Jackson and their purpose are as follows:

— Interest rate swaps generally involve the exchange of fixed and floating payments over the life of the agreement without an exchange of the underlying principal amount. These agreements are used for hedging purposes;

— forwards consist of interest spreadlock agreements, in which Jackson locks in the forward interest rate differential between a swap and the corresponding US Treasury security. The forwards are held as a hedge of corporate spreads;

— put-swaption contracts provide the purchaser with the right, but not the obligation, to require the writer to pay the present value of a long-duration interest rate swap at future exercise dates. Jackson purchases and writes put-swaptions with maturities up to 10 years. On a net basis, put-swaptions hedge against significant upward movements in interest rates;

— equity index futures contracts and equity index call and put options are used to hedge Jackson’s obligations associated with its issuance of fixed indexed immediate and deferred annuities and certain VA guarantees. These annuities and guarantees contain embedded options which are fair valued for financial reporting purposes;

— total return swaps in which Jackson receives equity returns or returns based on reference pools of assets in exchange for short-term floating rate payments based on notional amounts, are held for both hedging and investment purposes;

— cross-currency swaps, which embody spot and forward currency swaps and additionally, in some cases, interest rate swaps and equity index swaps, are entered into for the purpose of hedging Jackson’s foreign currency denominated funding agreements supporting trust instrument obligations;

— spread cap options are used as a macro-economic hedge against declining interest rates. Jackson receives quarterly settlements based on the spread between the two-year and the 10-year constant maturity swap rates in excess of a specified spread; and

— credit default swaps, represent agreements under which Jackson has purchased default protection on certain underlying corporate bonds held in its portfolio. These contracts allow Jackson to sell the protected bonds at par value to the counterparty in the event of their default in exchange for periodic payments made by Jackson for the life of the agreement.

Note D3(i) parts (iii) and (iv) show the sensitivities of Jackson’s results through its exposure to equity risk and interest rate risk.

e Process for setting assumptions and determining contract liabilities

Under the MSB of reporting applied under IFRS 4 for insurance contracts, providing the requirements of the Companies Act, UK GAAP standards and the ABI SORP are met, it is permissible to reflect the previously applied UK GAAP basis. Accordingly, and consistent with the basis explained in note A4, in the case of Jackson the carrying values of insurance assets and liabilities are consolidated into the Group accounts based on US GAAP.

Under US GAAP, investment contracts (as defined for US GAAP purposes) are accounted for by applying in the first instance a retrospective deposit method to determine the liability for policyholder benefits. This is then augmented by potentially three additional amounts. These amounts are for:

— Any amounts that have been assessed to compensate the insurer for services to be performed over future periods (i.e. deferred income);

— any amounts previously assessed against policyholders that are refundable on termination of the contract; and

— any probable future loss on the contract (i.e. premium deficiency).

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Capitalised acquisition costs and deferred income for these contracts are amortised over the life of the book of contracts. The present value of the estimated gross profits is generally computed using the rate of interest that accrues to policyholder balances (sometimes referred to as the contract rate). Estimated gross profits include estimates of the following elements, each of which will be determined based on the best estimate of amounts of the following individual elements over the life of the book of contracts without provision for adverse deviation for:

— Amounts expected to be assessed for mortality less benefit claims in excess of related policyholder balances;

— amounts expected to be assessed for contract administration less costs incurred for contract administration;

— amounts expected to be earned from the investment of policyholder balances less interest credited to policyholder balances;

— amounts expected to be assessed against policyholder balances upon termination of contracts (sometimes referred to as surrender charges); and

— other expected assessments and credits.

VA contracts written by Jackson may, as described above, provide for GMDB, GMIB, GMWB and GMAB features. In general terms, liabilities for these benefits are accounted for under US GAAP by using estimates of future benefits and fees under best estimate persistency assumptions.

The GMDB liability is determined each period end by estimating the expected value of death benefits in excess of the projected account balance and recognising the excess ratably over the life of the contract based on total expected assessments. At 31 December 2007, the GMDB liability was valued using a series of deterministic investment performance scenarios, a mean investment return of 8.4 per cent (2006: 8.4 per cent) and assumptions for lapse, mortality and expense that are the same as those used in amortising the capitalised acquisition costs.

The direct GMIB liability is determined by estimating the expected value of the annuitisation benefits in excess of the projected account balance at the date of annuitisation and recognising the excess ratably over the accumulation period based on total expected assessments.

The assumptions used for calculating the direct GMIB liability at 31 December 2007 and 2006 are consistent with those used for calculating the GMDB liability.

Jackson regularly evaluates estimates used and adjusts the additional GMDB and GMIB liability balances, with a related charge or credit to benefit expense, if actual experience or other evidence suggests that earlier assumptions should be revised.

GMIB benefits are essentially fully reinsured, subject to annual claim limits. As this reinsurance benefit is net settled, it is considered to be a derivative under IAS 39 and is, therefore, recognised at fair value with the change in fair value included as a component of short-term derivative fluctuations.

Most GMWB features are considered to be embedded derivatives under IAS 39. Therefore, provisions for these benefits are recognised at fair value, with the change in fair value included in operating profit based on longer-term investment returns. Certain GMWB features guarantee payments over a lifetime and, therefore, include mortality risk. Provisions for these GMWB amounts are valued consistent with the GMDB valuation method discussed above.

The fair values of the GMWB, GMIB and GMAB reinsurance derivatives are calculated based on actuarial assumptionsrelated to the projected cash flows, including benefits and related contract charges, over the expected lives of the contracts, incorporating expectations regarding policyholder behaviour in varying economic conditions. As the nature of these cash flows can be quite varied, stochastic techniques are used to generate a variety of market return scenarios for evaluation. The generation of these scenarios and the assumptions as to policyholder behaviour involve numerous estimates and subjective judgements, including those regarding expected market volatility, correlations of market returns and discount rates, utilisation of the benefit by policyholders under varying conditions, and policyholder lapsation. At each valuation date, Jackson assumes expected returns based on risk-free rates as represented by the LIBOR forward curve rates as of that date and market volatility as determined with reference to implied volatility data and evaluations of historical volatilities for various indices. The risk-free spot rates as represented by the LIBOR spot curve as of the valuation date are used to determine the present value of expected future cash flows produced in the stochastic process.

With the exception of the GMDB, GMIB, GMWB and GMAB features of VA contracts, the financial guarantee features of Jackson’s contracts are in most circumstances not explicitly valued, but the impact of any interest guarantees would be reflected as they are earned in the current account value (i.e. the US GAAP liability).

For traditional life insurance contracts, provisions for future policy benefits are determined under US GAAP standards SFAS 60, ‘Accounting and Reporting by Insurance Enterprises’ using the net level premium method and assumptions as of the issue date as to mortality, interest, policy lapses and expenses plus provisions for adverse deviation.

Institutional products are accounted for as investment contracts under IFRS with the liability classified as being in respect of financial instruments rather than insurance contracts, as defined by IFRS 4. In practice, there is no material difference between the IFRS and US GAAP basis of recognition and measurement for these contracts.

Certain institutional products representing obligations issued in currencies other than US dollars have been hedged for changes in exchange rates using cross-currency swaps. The fair value of derivatives embedded in funding agreements, as well as foreign currency transaction gains and losses, are included in the carrying value of the trust instruments supported by funding agreements recorded in other non-insurance liabilities.

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f Reinsurance

The principal reinsurance ceded by Jackson outside the Group is on term life insurance, direct and assumed accident and health business and GMIB variable annuity guarantees. In 2007, the premiums for such ceded business amounted to £60 million (2006: £66 million). Net commissions received on ceded business and claims incurred ceded to external reinsurers totalled £10 million and £47 million, respectively, during 2007 (2006: £12 million and £53 million respectively). There were no deferred gains or losses on reinsurance contracts in either 2007 or 2006. The reinsurance asset for business ceded outside the Group was £436 million (2006: £427 million).

g Effect of changes in assumptions used to measure insurance assets and liabilities

2007

The operating profit based on longer-term investment returns of £444 million for US insurance operations for 2007 has been determined after taking account of several changes of assumptions during the year. Generally, assumptions were modified in 2007 to conform to more recent experience. These changes included revisions to the assumptions regarding mortality rates, resulting in an increase in operating profits of £14 million, and utilisation of free partial withdrawal options, resulting in a decrease to operating profits of £4 million. In addition, several smaller changes relating to lapse rates and other assumptions resulted in a decrease of £2 million in operating profits. Combined with other minor modifications, the resulting net impact of all changes during the year was an increase in pre-tax profits of £8 million.

2006

The operating profit based on longer-term investment returns of £398 million for US insurance operations for 2006 was determined after taking account of several changes of assumptions during the year. Generally, assumptions were modified in 2006 to conform to more recent experience. These changes included revisions to the assumptions regarding utilisation of free partial withdrawal options, resulting in a decrease in Deferred Acquisition Costs (DAC) of £12 million. In addition, several smaller changes relating to lapse rates, mortality rates and other assumptions resulted in an increase of £6 million in DAC. Combined with other minor modifications, the resulting net impact of all changes during the year was a decrease in pre-tax profits of £7 million.

h Amount, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows from insurance contracts

At 31 December 2007, the EEV basis value of in-force business of the US operations, after taking account of the cost of encumbered capital, and the cost of the time value of financial options and guarantees, was £1,386 million (2006: £1,320 million). This value has been determined after applying the principles of valuation described in note D1. The key assumptions in these projections are the risk discount rates, which are 8.1 per cent (2006: 8.4 per cent) for variable annuity business and 4.8 per cent (2006: 5.6 per cent) for other business, and the expected ultimate spread between the earned rate and the rate credited to policyholders for single premium deferred annuity business of 1.75 per cent.

The sensitivity of the value of in-force business and net worth to changes in key assumptions is as follows:

Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
Economic assumptions:
Discount rates – 1% increase (129) (127)
Interest rates (including consequential changes for assumed investment returns for all asset
classes, market values of debt securities and all risk discount rates):
– 1% increase (120) (190)
– 1% decrease 17 116
Equity/property yields – 10% rise 58 46
Equity/property market values – 10% fall (63) (58)
Non-economic assumptions:
Maintenance expenses – 10% decrease 30 32
Lapse rates – 10% decrease 123 110
Mortality and morbidity – 5% decrease in base rates (i.e. increased longevity) 74 75

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i Sensitivity of IFRS basis profit and equity to market and other risks

i Currency fluctuations

Consistent with the Group’s accounting policies, the profits of the Group’s US operations are translated at average exchange rates and shareholders’ equity at the closing rate for the reporting period. For 2007, the rates were US$2.00 (2006: US$1.84) and US$1.99 (2006: US$1.96) to £1 sterling, respectively. A 10 per cent increase or decrease in these rates would reduce or increase profit before tax attributable to shareholders, profit for the year and shareholders’ equity attributable to US insurance operations respectively as follows:

Download as excel file
A 10% increase in
exchange rates
A 10% decrease in
exchange rates
2007 £m 2006 £m 2007 £m 2006 £m
Profit before tax attributable to shareholders (39) (42) 48 51
Profit for the year (29) (29) 35 35
Shareholders’ equity attributable to US insurance operations (242) (247) 296 293

ii Other sensitivities

The principal determinants of variations in operating profit based on longer-term returns are:

— Growth in the size of assets under management covering the liabilities for the contracts in force;

— incidence of guarantees; and

— spread returns for the difference between investment returns and rates credited to policyholders.

For the purpose of determining longer-term returns, adjustment is necessary for the normalisation of investment returns to remove the effects of short-term volatility in investment returns.

— Amortisation of deferred acquisition costs.

For term business, acquisition costs are deferred and amortised in line with expected premiums. For annuity business, acquisition costs are deferred and amortised in line with expected gross profits on the relevant contracts. For interest-sensitive business, the key assumption is the expected long-term spread between the earned rate and the rate credited to policyholders, which is based on an annual spread analysis. In addition, expected gross profits depend on mortality assumptions, assumed unit costs and terminations other than deaths (including the related charges) all of which are based on a combination of actual experience of Jackson, industry experience and future expectations. A detailed analysis of actual experience is measured by internally developed mortality and persistency studies. For variable annuity business, the key assumption is the expected long-term level of equity market returns, which for 2007 and 2006 was 8.4 per cent per annum implemented using a mean reversion methodology. These returns affect the level of future expected profits through their effects on the fee income and the required level of provision for guaranteed minimum death benefit claims.

— Variations in fees and other income, offset by variations in market value adjustment payments and, where necessary, strengthening of liabilities.

Except to the extent of mortality experience, which primarily affects profits through variations in claim payments and GMDB reserves, the profits of Jackson are relatively insensitive to changes in insurance risk.

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iii Exposure to equity risk

As noted in note D3(d), Jackson is exposed to equity risk through the options embedded in the fixed indexed liabilities and GMDB and GMWB guarantees included in certain VA benefits. This risk is managed using a comprehensive equity hedging programme to minimise the risk of a significant economic impact as a result of increases or decreases in equity market levels while taking advantage of naturally offsetting exposures in Jackson’s operations. Jackson purchases external futures and options that hedge the risks inherent in these products, while also considering the impact of rising and falling separate account fees. As a result of this hedging programme, if the equity markets were to increase, Jackson’s free-standing derivatives would decrease in value. However, over time, this movement would be broadly offset by increased separate account fees and reserve decreases, net of the related changes to amortisation of deferred acquisition costs. Due to the nature of the free-standing and embedded derivatives, this hedge, while highly effective on an economic basis, may not completely mute the immediate impact of the market movements as the free-standing derivatives reset immediately while the hedged liabilities reset more slowly (see note D3(e) for further details on the valuation of the guarantees) and fees are recognised prospectively. It is estimated that an immediate increase in the equity markets of 10 per cent would result in an accounting charge, net of related DAC amortisation, before tax of up to £30 million (2006: £20 million), excluding the impact on future separate account fees. After related deferred tax there would have been an estimated reduction in shareholders’ equity at 31 December 2007 of up to £20 million (2006: £13 million). An immediate decrease in the equity markets of 10 per cent would result in an approximately equal and opposite estimated effect on profit and shareholders’ equity. The actual impact on financial results would vary contingent upon the volume of new product sales and lapses, changes to the derivative portfolio, correlation of market returns and various other factors including volatility, interest rates and elapsed time.

In addition, Jackson is also exposed to equity risk from its holding of equity securities, partnerships in investment pools and other financial derivatives.

A 10 per cent decrease in their value would have given rise to an estimated £76 million (2006: £66 million) reduction in pre-tax profit, net of related changes in amortisation of DAC, for 2007. After related deferred tax there would have been an estimated £50 million (2006: £43 million) reduction in shareholders’ equity at 31 December 2007. A 10 per cent increase in their value would have an approximately equal and opposite effect on profit and shareholders’ equity.

iv Exposure to interest rate risk

Notwithstanding the market risk exposure described in note D3(d), except in the circumstances of interest rate scenarios where the guarantee rates included in contract terms are higher than crediting rates that can be supported from assets held to cover liabilities, the accounting measurement of liabilities of Jackson products is not generally sensitive to interest rate risk. This position derives from the nature of the products and the US GAAP basis of measurement described in notes D3(c) and D3(e).

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However, the debt securities and related derivatives are marked to market value. Value movements on derivatives, again net of related changes to amortisation of DAC and deferred tax, are recorded within profit and loss. Market value movements on debt securities, net of related changes to amortisation of DAC and deferred tax, are recorded within the statement of changes in equity. The estimated sensitivity of these items and policyholder liabilities to a one per cent decrease and increase in interest rates at 31 December 2007 and 2006 is as follows:

Download as excel file
A 1% decrease in interest rates A 1% increase in interest rates
2007 £m 2006 £m 2007 £m 2006 £m
Profit and loss
Direct effect
Derivatives value change (116) (95) 163 109
Policyholder liabilities (38) (7) 29 3
Related effect on amortisation of DAC 52 29 (58) (30)
Pre-tax profit effect
Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns (15) (2) 11 1
Short-term fluctuations in investment returns (87) (71) 123 81
(102) (73) 134 82
Related effect on charge for deferred tax 36 26 (47) (29)
Net profit effect (66) (47) 87 53
Statement of changes in equity
Direct effect on carrying value of debt securities 848 858 (848) (858)
Related effect on amortisation of DAC (212) (214) 212 214
Related effect on movement in deferred tax (223) (225) 223 225
Net effect 413 419 (413) (419)
Total net effect on IFRS equity 347 372 (326) (366)

j Duration of liabilities

The Group uses cash flow projections of expected benefit payments as part of the determination of the value of in-force business when preparing EEV basis results. The maturity profile of the cash flows used for that purpose for 2007 and 2006 is as follows:

2007 £m 2006 £m
Fixed annuity and other business (including GICs and similar contracts) Variable annuity Fixed annuity and other business (including GICs and similar contracts) Variable annuity
Policyholder liabilities 19,821 15,027 20,379 11,367
% % % %
Expected maturity:
0 to 5 years 51 48 53 48
5 to 10 years 26 30 26 30
10 to 15 years 11 13 11 13
15 to 20 years 5 6 5 6
20 to 25 years 3 2 3 2
Over 25 years 4 1 2 1

The maturity tables shown above have been prepared on a discounted basis. Details of undiscounted cash flows for investment contracts are shown in note G2.

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D4: Asian insurance operations

a Summary balance sheet at 31 December 2007

Download as excel file
Asian insurance operations
2007 2006
With-profits business
note i
Unit-linked assets and liabilities Other Total Total
£m £m £m £m £m
Assets
Intangible assets attributable to shareholders:
Goodwill 111 111 111
Deferred acquisition costs and other intangible assets 745 745 612
Total 856 856 723
Other non-investment and non-cash assets 134 58 570 762 602
Investments of long-term business and other operations:
Investment properties 14 14 41
Financial investments:
Loans note ii 560 37 490 1,087 904
Equity securities and portfolio holdings in unit trusts 4,472 4,728 604 9,804 6,894
Debt securities note iii 2,329 1,901 2,690 6,920 5,391
Other investments 13 6 23 42 87
Deposits 44 118 215 377 408
Total investments 7,418 6,790 4,036 18,244 13,725
Cash and cash equivalents 194 123 362 679 618
Total assets 7,746 6,971 5,824 20,541 15,668
Equity and liabilities
Equity
Shareholders’ equity 1,369 1,369 1,287
Minority interests 7 7
Total equity 1,376 1,376 1,287
Liabilities
Policyholder liabilities and unallocated surplus of with-profits funds:
Insurance contract liabilities 6,280 6,971 3,661 16,912 12,706
Investment contract liabilities with discretionary participation features 84 84 68
Investment contract liabilities without discretionary participation features 37 37 27
Unallocated surplus of with-profits funds 146 146 88
Total 6,547 6,971 3,661 17,179 12,889
Other non-insurance liabilities 1,199 787 1,986 1,492
Total liabilities 7,746 6,971 4,448 19,165 14,381
Total equity and liabilities 7,746 6,971 5,824 20,541 15,668

Notes

i The balance sheet for with-profits business comprises the with-profits assets and liabilities of the Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore with-profits operations. Assets and liabilities of other participating business are included in the column for ‘other business’.

ii The loans of the Group’s Asian insurance operations of £1,087 million comprise mortgage loans of £132 million, policy loans of £430 million and other loans of £525 million. The mortgage and policy loans are secured by properties and life insurance policies respectively. The majority of the other loans are commercial loans held by the Malaysian operation and which are all investment graded by two local rating agencies.

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iii Credit quality of debt securities

The following table summarises the credit quality of the debt securities of the Asian insurance operations as at 31 December 2007 by rating agency rating:

Download as excel file
With-profits
business
£m
Unit-linked
business
£m
Other
business
£m
Total
£m
S&P – AAA 1,367 660 257 2,284
S&P – AA+ to AA- 242 153 1,599 1,994
S&P – A+ to A- 299 271 105 675
S&P – BBB+ to BBB- 142 34 17 193
S&P – Other 8 47 94 149
2,058 1,165 2,072 5,295
Moody’s – Aaa 16 185 201
Moody’s – Aa1 to Aa3 7 19 19 45
Moody’s – A1 to A3 11 16 1 28
Moody’s – Baa1 to Baa3 12 7 19
Moody’s – Other 58 58
104 227 20 351
Other 167 509 598 1,274
Total debt securities 2,329 1,901 2,690 6,920

Of the £598 million debt securities for other business which are not rated in the table above, £317 million are in respect of government bonds, £83 million corporate bonds rated as investment grade by local external ratings agencies, and £71 million structured deposits issued by banks which are themselves rated but where the specific deposits have not been.

Summary policyholder liabilities (net of reinsurance) and unallocated surplus

The policyholder liabilities (net of reinsurance of £12 million (2006: £8 million)) and unallocated surplus shown in the table above reflect the following balances:

Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
With-profits business 6,397 5,410
Unallocated surplus of Asian with-profit operations 146 88
Unit-linked business 6,971 4,134
Other business 3,653 3,249
17,167 12,881

At 31 December 2007, the policyholder liabilities (net of reinsurance) and unallocated surplus for Asian operations of £17.2 billion (2006: £12.9 billion) comprised the following:

Download as excel file
2007 £m 2006 £m
Singapore 5,462 4,355
Hong Kong 3,901 3,045
Taiwan 2,781 2,249
Malaysia 1,201 895
Japan 695 572
Other countries 3,127 1,765
Total Asian operations 17,167 12,881

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b Products and guarantees

The life insurance products offered by the Group’s Asian operations include a range of with-profits and non-participating term, whole life, endowment and unit-linked policies. The Asian operations also offer health, disability, critical illness and accident coverage to supplement its core life products.

The terms and conditions of the contracts written by the Asian operations and, in particular, the products’ options and guarantees, vary from territory to territory depending upon local market circumstances.

In general terms, the Asian participating products provide savings and protection where the basic sum assured can be enhanced by a profit share (or bonus) from the underlying fund as determined at the discretion of the insurers. The Asian operations’ non-participating term, whole life and endowment products offer savings and/or protection where the benefits are guaranteed or determined by a set of defined market related parameters. Unit-linked products combine savings with protection, the cash value of the policy depends on the value of the underlying unitised funds. Accident and Health (A&H) policies provide mortality or morbidity benefits and include health, disability, critical illness and accident coverage. A&H products are commonly offered as supplements to main life policies but can be sold separately.

Subject to local market circumstances and regulatory requirements, the guarantee features described in note D2(c) in respect of UK business broadly apply to similar types of participating contracts written in the Hong Kong branch, Singapore and Malaysia. Participating products have both guaranteed and non-guaranteed elements.

Non-participating long-term products are the only ones where the insurer is contractually obliged to provide guarantees on all benefits. Investment-linked products have the lowest level of guarantee if indeed they have any.

Product guarantees in Asia can be broadly classified into four main categories; namely premium rate, cash value and interest rate guarantees, policy renewability and convertibility options.

The risks on death coverage through premium rate guarantees are low due to appropriate product pricing.

Cash value and interest rate guarantees are of three types:

— Maturity values

Maturity values are guaranteed for non-participating products and on the guaranteed portion of participating products. Declared annual bonuses are also guaranteed once vested. Future bonus rates and cash dividends are not guaranteed on participating products.

— Surrender values

Surrender values are guaranteed for non-participating products and on the guaranteed portion of participating products. The surrender value of declared reversionary bonuses are also guaranteed once vested.

Market value adjustments and surrender penalties are used where the law permits such adjustments in cash values.

— Interest rate guarantees

It is common in Asia for regulations or market driven demand and competition to provide some form of capital value protection and minimum crediting interest rate guarantees. This would be reflected within the guaranteed maturity and surrender values.

The guarantees are borne by shareholders for non-participating and investment-linked (non-investment guarantees only) products. Participating product guarantees are predominantly supported by the segregated life funds and their estates.

The most significant book of non-participating business in the Asian operations is Taiwan’s whole of life contracts. For these contracts there are floor levels of policyholder benefits that accrue at rates set at inception which are set by reference to minimum terms established by local regulation also at the time of inception. These rates do not vary subsequently with market conditions.

Under these contracts, the cost of premiums are also fixed at inception based on a number of assumptions at that time, including long-term interest rates, mortality assumptions and expenses. The guaranteed maturity and surrender values reflect the pricing basis. The main variable that determines the amounts payable under the contracts is the duration of the contracts, which is determined by death or surrender. The sensitivity of the IFRS result for these contracts is shown in note (h) below.

Whole of life contracts with floor levels of policyholder benefits that accrue at rates set at inception are also written in the Korean life operations, though to a much less significant extent than in Taiwan. The Korean business has non-linked liabilities and linked liabilities at 31 December 2007 of £261 million and £728 million respectively (2006: £226 million and £316 million respectively). The business is much less sensitive to returns than Taiwan with a higher proportion of linked and health business.

The other area of note in respect of guarantees is the Japanese business where pricing rates are higher than current bond yields. Lapse risk is a feature in that policyholders could potentially surrender their policies on guaranteed terms if interest rates significantly increased leaving the potential for losses if bond values had depreciated significantly. However, the business is matched to a relatively short realistic liability duration.

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The method for determining liabilities of insurance contracts for UK GAAP, and hence IFRS, purposes for some Asian operations is based on US GAAP principles and this method applies to contracts with cash value and interest rate guarantees. Following standard US GAAP procedure, premium deficiency reserve calculations are performed each year to establish whether the carrying values of the liabilities are sufficient.

On the US GAAP basis the calculations are deterministic, that is to say based on a single set of projections, and expected long-term rates of return are applied.

c Exposure to market risk

The Asian operations sell with-profits and unit-linked policies and, although the with-profits business generally has a lower terminal bonus element than in the UK, the investment portfolio still contains a proportion of equities and, to a lesser extent, property. Non-participating business is largely backed by debt securities or deposits. With the principal exception of Taiwan’s whole of life policy book, as described in note (h) below, the exposure to market risk of the Group arising from its Asian operations is at modest levels. This arises from the fact that the Asian operations have a balanced portfolio of with-profits, unit-linked and other types of business.

d Process for setting assumptions and determining liabilities

The future policyholder benefit provisions for Asian businesses in the Group’s IFRS accounts and previously under the MSB, are determined in accordance with methods prescribed by local GAAP adjusted to comply, where necessary, with UK GAAP.

For Asian operations in countries where local GAAP is not well established and in which the business written is primarily non-participating and linked business, US GAAP is used as the most appropriate reporting basis. Of the more significant Asian operations, this basis is applied in Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam. The future policyholder benefit provisions for non-linked business are determined under FAS 60 using the net level premium method, with an allowance for surrenders, maintenance and claims expenses. Rates of interest used in establishing the policyholder benefit provisions vary by operation depending on the circumstances attaching to each block of business.

For the traditional business in Taiwan, the economic scenarios used to calculate the IFRS results reflect the assumption of a phased progression of bond yields from current rates to long-term expected rates. The projections assume that the current bond yields of around 2.5 per cent (2006: 2 per cent) trend towards 5.5 per cent (2006: 5.5 per cent) at 31 December 2013 (2006: 2013).

e Reinsurance

The Asian businesses cede only minor amounts of business outside the Group with immaterial effects on reported profit. During 2007, reinsurance premiums for externally ceded business were £52 million (2006: £47 million) and the reinsurance assets were £12 million (2006: £8 million) in aggregate.

f Effect of changes in bases and assumptions used to measure insurance assets and liabilities

There are no changes of assumptions that had a material impact on the 2007 and 2006 results of Asian operations.

g Amount, timing and uncertainty of future cash flows from insurance contracts

At 31 December 2007, the EEV basis value of in-force business of the Asian operations, after taking account of the cost of encumbered capital and the cost of the time value of financial options and guarantees was £2,770 million (2006: £1,628 million). The most significant businesses in Asia are in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. These businesses account for 74 per cent (2006: 75 per cent) of the total value of business in-force for the Asian operations. These EEV basis in-force values have been determined after applying the principles of valuation described in section D1 and the following key assumptions for the four most significant businesses.

Page 208

Download as excel file
2007 % 2006 %
Risk discount rate (in-force business)† Expected long-term rate of inflation Government bond yield Risk discount rate (in-force business)† Expected long-term rate of inflation Government bond yield
Hong Kong* 6.0 2.25 4.1 6.8 2.25 4.7
Malaysia 9.1 2.75 6.5 9.2 3.00 7.0
Singapore 6.8 1.75 4.25 6.9 1.75 4.5
Taiwan 9.8 2.25 5.5 9.3 2.25 5.5

*Hong Kong business is predominantly US dollar denominated.

For 2007, cash rates rather than government bond yields were used in setting the risk discount rates for Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and for Hong Kong dollar denominated business. For 2006, cash rates were used for these operations and for all Hong Kong business (i.e. including US dollar denominated business).

The most significant equity holdings in Asian operations are in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. The arithmetic average equity return assumptions for these three territories at 31 December 2007 were 8.1 per cent, 12.5 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively (2006: 8.7 per cent, 12.8 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively).

For Taiwan the same assumptions are applied as under IFRS (see note (d) above).

The sensitivity of the value of in-force business and net worth to changes in key assumptions is as follows:

Download as excel file
2007 £m   2006 £m
Economic assumptions:
Discount rates – 1% increase (386) (271)
Interest rates (including consequential changes for assumed investment returns for all assets
classes, market values of debt securities and all risk discount rates):
– 1% increase (29) 42
– 1% decrease 2 (115)
Equity/property yields – 10% rise 234 154
Equity/property market values – 10% fall (136) (99)
Non-economic assumptions:
Maintenance expenses – 10% decrease 54 45
Lapse rates – 10% decrease 142 93
Mortality and morbidity – 5% decrease in base rates (i.e. increased longevity) 98 77

In addition to these disclosures, for Asian operations as a whole it should be noted that the cash flows of the Taiwan life business are particularly sensitive to projected rates of investment return (as described in note (h)(iii) below).

h Sensitivity of IFRS basis profit and equity to market and other risks

Currency translation

Consistent with the Group’s accounting policies, the profits of the Asian operations are translated at average exchange rates and shareholders’ equity at the closing rate for the reporting period. For 2007, the rates for the most significant operations are given in note B4.

A 10 per cent increase or decrease in these rates and those of other Asian operations would have reduced or increased profit before tax attributable to shareholders, profit for the year and shareholders’ equity, excluding goodwill, attributable to Asian operations respectively as follows:

Download as excel file
A 10% decrease in exchange rates A 10% decrease in
exchange rates
2007 £m 2006 £m 2007 £m 2006 £m
Profit before tax attributable to shareholders (16) (33) 20 34
Profit for the year (10) (21) 13 25
Shareholders’ equity, excluding goodwill, attributable to Asian operations (124) (116) 151 143

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Other risks

i With-profits business

Similar principles to those explained for UK with-profits business apply to profit emergence for the Asian with-profits business. Correspondingly, the profit emergence reflects bonus declaration and is relatively insensitive to period by period fluctuations in insurance risk or interest rate movements.

ii Unit-linked business

As for the UK insurance operations, the profits and shareholders’ equity related to the Asian operations is primarily driven by charges related to invested funds. For the Asian operations, substantially all of the contracts are classified as insurance contracts under IFRS 4, i.e. containing significant insurance risk. The sensitivity of profits and equity to changes in insurance risk is minor and, to interest rate risk, not material.

iii Other business

Taiwan whole of life business – interest rate risk on deferred acquisition costs and policyholders’ liabilities

The principal other business of Asian operations is the traditional whole of life business written in Taiwan.

The in-force business of the Taiwan life operation includes traditional whole of life policies where the premium rates have been set by the regulator at different points for the industry as a whole. Premium rates were set to give a guaranteed minimum sum assured on death and a guaranteed surrender value on early surrender based on prevailing interest rates at the time of policy issue. Premium rates also included allowance for mortality and expenses. The required rates of guarantee have fallen over time as interest rates have reduced from a high of eight per cent to current levels of around 2.5 per cent. The current low level of bond rates in Taiwan gives rise to a negative spread for the majority of these policies. The current cash cost of funding in-force negative spread in Taiwan is around £45 million a year.

The profits attaching to these contracts are particularly affected by the rates of return earned, and estimated to be earned, on the assets held to cover liabilities and on future investment income and contract cash flows. Under IFRS, the insurance contract liabilities of the Taiwan business are determined on the US GAAP basis as applied previously under UK GAAP. Under this basis, the policy liabilities are calculated on sets of assumptions, which are locked in at the point of policy inception, and a deferred acquisition cost is held in the balance sheet.

The adequacy of the insurance contract liabilities is tested by reference to best estimates of expected investment returns on policy cash flows and reinvested income. The assumed earned rates are used to discount the future cash flows. The assumed earned rates consist of a long-term best estimate determined by consideration of long-term market conditions and rates assumed to be earned in the trending period. For 2007 and 2006, it has been projected that rates of return for Taiwanese bond yields will trend from the then current levels of some 2.5 per cent (2.0 per cent) to 5.5 per cent by 31 December 2013.

The liability adequacy test results are sensitive to the attainment of the trended rates during the trending period. Based on the current asset mix, margins in other contracts that are used in the assessment of the liability adequacy tests and currently assumed future rates of return, if interest rates were to remain at current levels in 2008 and 2009 and the target date for attainment of the long-term bond yield deferred to 31 December 2015, the premium reserve, net of deferred acquisition costs, would be sufficient. If interest rates were to remain at current levels beyond the end of 2009 with the date of the attainment of the long-term rate further delayed, the margin within the net GAAP reserve will reduce further.

However, the need to write off deferred acquisition costs or increase the liabilities, and by how much, would be affected by the impact of new business written between 31 December 2007 and the future reporting dates to the extent that the business is taken into account as part of the liability adequacy testing calculations for the portfolio of contracts.

The adequacy of the liability is also sensitive to the level of the projected long-term rate on bonds. The current long-term assumption of 5.5 per cent has been determined on a prudent best estimate basis by reference to detailed assessments of the financial dynamics of the Taiwanese economy. In the event that the rate applied was altered, the carrying value of the deferred acquisition costs and policyholder liabilities would potentially be affected.

At 31 December 2007, if the assumed long-term bond yield applied had been reduced by 0.5 per cent from 5.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent and continued to apply the same progression period to 31 December 2013, by assuming bond yields increase from current levels in equal annual instalments to the long-term rate, the premium reserve, net of deferred acquisition costs, would have been sufficient. The impact of reducing the long-term rate by a further 0.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent would have been such that the net GAAP reserve would have met the liability adequacy test but with no margin available to cover further deterioration. An additional 0.5 per cent reduction in the assumed long-term rate from 4.5 per cent to 4.0 per cent would lead to a charge of some £200 million.

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The adequacy of the Taiwan insurance contract liabilities is also sensitive to movements in short-term movements in market interest rates. This is because a reduction in the current interest rates would alter the progression rate to the long-term rate and the assumed timing of attainment of the rate may be insufficient and they would have been deferred. If the interest rates at 31 December 2006 of circa 2 per cent had been lower by 0.5 per cent and the date for the attainment of the long-term rate deferred by one year to 2014 the effect on the net premium reserve would have been a charge of approximately £60 million.

If the interest rate at 31 December 2007 of circa 2.5 per cent had been lower by 0.5 per cent with the same progression period and long-term rate the net premium reserve would have been adequate and no charge would have been necessary.

For the Korean and Japanese life business exposures described in note (b) above, the results are comparatively unaffected by changes of assumption. The accounts basis value of liabilities for both operations are of a similar order of magnitude to those that apply for the purposes of Group solvency calculations under the Insurance Groups Directive (IGD).

Interest rate risk for other business excluding Taiwan

In addition to the sensitivity of the Taiwan results to the impact of current period and longer-term interest rates on liability adequacy tests, as described above, the other business and solvency capital of Asian operations are also sensitive to the vagaries of routine movements in interest rates.

Asian operations offer a range of insurance and investment products, predominantly with-profits and non-participating term, whole life endowment and unit linked.

Excluding with-profit and unit-linked business along with Taiwan, which is detailed above, 72 per cent (2006: 78 per cent) of the bond portfolio for other business of Asian operations at 31 December 2007 was held in Japan, Singapore and Vietnam with corporate bond rates varying from territory to territory and ranging from 1.5 per cent to 9.1 per cent at 31 December 2007 (1.7 per cent to 8.8 per cent at 31 December 2006) for these three countries. An analysis of movements in bond rates during previous periods and its impact on IFRS basis profit or loss and shareholders’ equity has been undertaken, with reasonably possible movements for these countries being considered to be 0.25 per cent for Japan, 0.5 per cent for Singapore and 1.0 per cent for Vietnam.

Based on these movements, plus indicative changes for bonds held in other Asian operations within the region, the impact on IFRS basis profit or loss and shareholders’ equity from a reasonably possible change in interest rates for Asian operations excluding Taiwan at 31 December 2007 has been assessed, with rate movements ranging from 0.25 per cent to 1.0 per cent (2006: 0.25 per cent to 1.0 per cent) dependent on country. Looking at the region in aggregate and noting that interest rates are unlikely to move consistently by the same degree from period to period, the range of movements considered to be reasonably possible would result in a change in IFRS profit or loss of plus or minus £30 million (2006: £32 million). These amounts, if they arose, would be recorded within the category short-term fluctuations in investment returns in the Group’s supplementary analysis of profit before tax. After adjusting for deferred tax the reasonably possible effect on shareholders’ equity is plus or minus £22 million (2006: £24 million).

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Equity price risk

The principal holders of equity securities are the Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam businesses. For the Taiwan and Singapore operations market changes have a direct effect on profit and loss with no matching effect on the carrying value of policyholder liabilities. This is also true for the Vietnam business. However, to the extent that equity investment appreciation is realised through sales of securities then policyholders’ liabilities are adjusted to the extent that policyholders’ participate.

The impact of a 10 per cent change in equity prices for shareholder-backed Asian other business, which would be reflected in the short-term fluctuation component of the Group’s supplementary analysis of profit before tax, would be as follows:

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2007 £m 2006 £m
10% increase 10% decrease 10% increase 10% decrease
Pre-tax 73 (73) 67 (67)
Related deferred tax (where applicable) (5) 5 (8) 8
Net effect on profit and equity 68 (68) 59 (59)

i Duration of liabilities

The Group uses cash flow projections of expected benefit payments as part of the determination of the value of in-force business when preparing EEV basis results. The maturity profile of the cash flows, taking account of expected future premiums and investment returns, is as follows:

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2007 £m 2006 £m
Policyholder liabilities 17,033 12,801
% %
Expected maturity:
0 to 5 years 22 22
5 to 10 years 22 20
10 to 15 years 16 16
15 to 20 years 13 13
20 to 25 years 9 10
Over 25 years 18 19

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D5: Capital position statement for life assurance businesses

a Summary statement

The Group’s estimated capital position for life assurance businesses with reconciliations to shareholders’ equity is shown below. Available capital for each fund or group of companies is determined by reference to local regulation at 31 December 2007 and 2006.

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2007 £m
31 December 2007 SAIF WPSF note i Total PAC with- profits fund Other UK life assurance subsidiaries and funds note ii Jackson Asian life assurance subsidiaries Total life assurance operations M&G Parent company and share- holder's equity of other and funds Group total
Group shareholders’ equity
Held outside long-term funds:
Net assets 550 2,690 1,258 4,498 271 (723) 4,046
Goodwill 111 111 1,153 77 1,341
Total 550 2,690 1,369 4,609 1,424 (646) 5,387
Held in long-term funds note iii 814 814 814
Total Group shareholders’ equity 1,364 2,690 1,369 5,423 1,424 (646) 6,201
Adjustments to regulatory basis
Unallocated surplus of
with-profits funds note v 14,205 14,205